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<br />FUTURE OUTLOOK: BASELINE CASE
<br />
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<br />.""...'"'.V"'IIlt....lprw:licft"'"I.
<br />....."',._..~..._.t>o>.."l.....
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<br />
<br />ASSUMPTIONS
<br />
<br />TMf...oftclncr,llnl-...._....
<br />B~$n.'l'if, .......w..........doanJ<'
<br />m ......... p.bbc: p<>I"'oQ.... ....Ir,
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<br />_..,.,_..,......"....d'o.,,"',.....
<br />tod..'h.foncoll.'h<.....'....,d""....
<br />......If_lo'........'mp'ioro<ff,.
<br />.............._fnl...""...OII......'......
<br />.04.... ..... ...... d"......"" p'"",~'
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<br />c.~,.r.nJo .....<ndh..._""
<br />1'...,)'><'Id,....4t.-.!of>odlo._hof'to<
<br />""",.........,...10< H~hPIol" ""11)'
<br />pl...I"""....... ""h..~~b...~I.<I).'''"'
<br />I",w", ,"".......,.,...... <......P...<<
<br />",llfo,.........1l4.11o<IlASf.LJ"lu..
<br />..."..... ,lull )'o<ld. ...R .""1"'''' ,..
<br />,""........b"'.....""lylo..~.'.ln.h.o
<br />.h<,.."
<br />
<br />SELECTED CROP YIELDS
<br />
<br />w 200 -
<br />a:
<br /><.> -
<br /><t t50
<br />a: ...
<br />w
<br />"- tOO I-
<br />'"
<br />-'
<br />W
<br />I 50
<br />'"
<br />::>
<br />lD , ,
<br /> 0
<br /> 1919 1985 1990
<br />
<br />Irrigated corn
<br />
<br />h,,~. _.. The B!t~U.'!IOE a...
<br />_...... .1101..." "'.- ~,U.1Ii<
<br />"""'04...10111.,,,"100..'10<'."'"
<br />;..I1IoI"'........'''....''4Il,...n 1'.""",
<br />1..'r<'.~..Il,..""""....."..
<br />....~..1 P'."" d....llud .,~ """,<<0<4
<br />'0 ''''' .....< ..podl~ .Ioon "'..... I",
<br />
<br />Irrigated wheal
<br />
<br />Unirrigated whea~
<br />
<br />2000 2020
<br />YEAR
<br />
<br />.1r<1,,""y...hoth...ho.d'ly,......'ed
<br />1'......b"rwl..t..pr1;e...r....,l:1WIIf
<br />1lA."fl.l'E........rr........<k1:I.....y_
<br />......"'r..o.p""..uw.n,.nd........l
<br />p..I.... ".........""..... i..:!O:!O....
<br />...... 1~1'I
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<br />------
<br />---
<br />-----
<br />
<br />>-'
<br />~
<br />'"
<br />a;
<br />10 a
<br />
<br />SELECTED ENERGY PRICES
<br />(1979 Dollorsl
<br />
<br />~
<br />=>
<br />~ 10
<br />~
<br />
<br />'"
<br />9
<br />'"
<br />~
<br />'"
<br />a
<br />~
<br />>-
<br />z
<br />'"
<br />'"
<br />
<br />,
<br />
<br />
<br />o
<br />1919
<br />
<br />1985 1990
<br />
<br />2000
<br />YEAR
<br />
<br />o
<br />2020
<br />
<br />-' SELECTED COMMODITY PRICES
<br />w (1979 Dollors)
<br />I 4.00
<br />'"
<br />::> Wheat
<br />lD
<br />a: Corn
<br />w 3.00
<br />"-
<br />'" Sorghum
<br />a:
<br /><t
<br />-' 2.0<>
<br />-'
<br />0 t979 1985 1990 2000 2020
<br />Cl YEAR
<br />
<br />
<br />C,,,,,,...,IJdM;. AU 1''''''' ".d m
<br />'to<ll..b....'''.S.L\dj...'n......''..."
<br />1~1YJ..u... Pr"""'tioBoc>lr"'...."'....
<br />""..,...._,10<<11.....<11'011&""'.
<br />Uo...",,,dr,,,,,,..,,II-ASflJ"f..,,,,
<br />pn<afo.'h.,w""'p",,.d.....
<br />...Io""""o....{;" [k~I1"''''of
<br />........b.....<o"'put.._d.n.."'o>d.
<br /><I f........."i<l<'..><d<k....IId-.1I<l
<br />Il>crdnr. h,~,,", pn...' !,.. ....."1',,..
<br />.1."...mod",..heca"..oI.""........
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<br />"....'o,"-<Iuol.mll<C...,....II"...~'.
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<br />
<br />RESULTS
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<br />"ha~'l<d l'nder ,hio BASEllSE<:M<.
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<br />'h<(},..IlaI,o"""'M.t>o>,,''N",~I_
<br />.......Ioc<t...,...........ol...'f04.....oI.
<br />
<br />Eleclricity ..,--
<br />..,,'
<br />"
<br />....,..~..
<br />~,~ Natural Gos
<br />
<br />uoa'71rn,1I...........I..........kfrcm....
<br />."...wI ye." Ol.ha, ."'oont.....ly
<br />d'..", IooUio..';......dl....."""~m..
<br />..II) ,.".....hl< 10' "n..".'. ,.. 1111O
<br />....h,Ie...f1."''''.............ukf~
<br />0'" of f"'OOl""'.....to:.:.".."t,,,,,,,"-
<br />~..... ............. ....... ..... _II.
<br />..ould........l>b.hed'"O'h.'.......lto<
<br />~.olo,.do S,... E...,....... olf,,,,, .",-
<br />....'n'h.'.l><>Ul200m........cll.<"IJIlId
<br />... .llo..~ '0 ,.".... ("o,,"')' ",,""
<br /><IIn,,,,,,,,,Ia,,..,,,.Th<oc..-.,..lod<4
<br />,...l><p'oJ<<'".....
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<br /><.Jioa io fHOJ<<l<d '0 dod,,,,, lI"m
<br />._UW....lb......'o.t>o>lIl,1IOO
<br />...<I..i..;1lUG.....-r_od...
<br /><<...........'u,.I.... "......... 11,,11<.
<br />..... "'o,e<u..... 'ot 'Ico:"""'~' .10.
<br />"..b.......r....dl..b<pcto...!or
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<br />ol."........'''..,,~,''''l.().j...p.riod
<br />.......,'h.I<<'l"C,'y........ol'''.rect''''.
<br />"...._ur..lt<t:!DOO..oq,,~.....pl<-
<br />...... ,,,,....10 p"...p...,
<br />("...,. r"oJw'irm C.....rc....u..,,,.
<br />""...,......,r-n..l<<I<'ol'lh'...'rfooul'''.
<br />.,.j.....I'<'I'''"'.."..I1o...n..........
<br />,""p"""f'il..........o.....,,..,..""
<br />,,~.. ,mp"_ ..10;1<1"011.....""01"
<br />l"aI..h<.",...,j'"1..b<flo.1"0i<<t'"
<br />'o.d"'I>......"'......I1). T_.n"h.
<br />'0.110.. r'..... 8AS1TI"E "'0"'''''''''''''
<br />
<br />I
<br />
<br />.
<br />
<br />I
<br />
<br />j
<br />I
<br />
<br />SELECTED CROP PRODUCTION
<br />
<br />/~
<br />/
<br />~
<br />/
<br />" Wheat
<br />~-
<br />"
<br />"
<br />--
<br />--
<br />
<br />~10
<br />w
<br />I
<br />"'60
<br />::>
<br />lD
<br />~50
<br />'"
<br />540
<br />-'
<br />-'
<br />- 30
<br />::;
<br />
<br />
<br />20
<br />1979 19B5 1990
<br />
<br />Corn
<br />
<br />
<br />.
<br />
<br />2000
<br />YEAR
<br />
<br />2020
<br />
<br />I
<br />I
<br />I
<br />I
<br />
<br />j
<br />
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