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<br />O(Ju5H; <br /> <br />December 17,1997 <br />DRAFT <br /> <br />California's long-standing use of Arizona and Nevada's apportioned, but <br /> <br />unused apportionments, as authorized by the Secretary of the Interior, is <br /> <br />nearing an end. <br /> <br />o The major objective for California is developing various programs, including <br /> <br />transferring water from the agricultural users to the urban users, such that <br /> <br />MWD's Colorado River Aqueduct can run at essentially full capacity without <br /> <br />causing detrimental impacts in the agricultural service areas and to the other <br /> <br />Colorado River Basin states. <br /> <br />o The total water \Jse within the Colorado River Basin is currently estimated to <br /> <br />be 1 to 2 MAF below long-term average supplies. Given the large amount <br /> <br />of reservoir storage in the Basin and recognizing that periods of below <br /> <br />normal supplies must be anticipated, there is likely to be some amount of <br /> <br />surplus supplies over the next several decades. For purposes of this Plan, <br /> <br />it is assumed that, based on current reservoir operating criteria and the <br /> <br />Upper Basin's schedule for development, there is approximately a 50 <br /> <br />percent probability of hydrologic surpluses in the decade prior to 2010; <br /> <br />approximately 40 percent probability of such surpluses in the decade prior <br /> <br />to 2020; and approximately 30 percent probability of such surpluses in the <br /> <br />decade prior to 2030. <br /> <br />c:L.\44pIJV17.wpd <br /> <br />3 <br />