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<br />{] - l r" -~_?.., <br />. . VUJ...c <br /> <br />The Integral Project <br /> <br />Scheduling and forecasting are conducted on both a daily and seasonal basis. Daily <br />scheduling and forecasting relate to the daily formulation of an operating plan for the <br />reservoir and power systems. For the TV A Reservoir System, this plan is generally <br />formulated for a 12-day period using a daily time step. These plans are based on observed <br />rainfall and forecasted rainfall. Seasonal forecasting for the reservoir system is conducted <br />when seasonal issues relating to the winter flood season, the spring fill, the summer <br />recreation season, or the fall drawdown period are of concern. Seasonal reservoir system <br />forecasting is generally formulated for a 3- to 6-month time period. <br /> <br />The TV A Power System also generates daily and seasonal plans for scheduling and <br />forecasting hydropower generation. Based on actual and expected conditions in the thermal <br />power and reservoir systems, a 5-day plan is formulated on a daily basis, a 5-week plan is <br />generated on a weekly basis, and a monthly plan is generated on a monthly basis for the <br />hydropower system. Scheduling and forecasting problems are distinguished from the other <br />categories in that the schedule must be tied to current real-time system status and operating <br />conditions. <br /> <br />Operational planning problems involve formulating an operating plan that will adjust overall <br />reservoir system operations to account for planned changes in the operations at specific <br />hydropower plants or reservoirs. Examples of such planned changes include maintenance or <br />construction at a dam or a periodic reservoir drawdown for dam inspection. The goal of <br />these planning evaluations is to minimize disruptions to system-wide multipurpose reservoir <br />uses and power generation. This often means identifying the best time for the maintenance <br />or drawdown and estimating the expected recovery (viz., refill) time. Additionally, TV A <br />Power Supply conducts various operational planning studies for budgeting purposes and to <br />support the annual rate review process. A range of historic hydrologic conditions are <br />generally used to evaluate these operational planning problems, and the reservoir system is <br />not necessarily tied to current operating conditions. <br /> <br />The third class of problems involves policy planning studies. These studies evaluate the <br />impacts of changes in operating policy or hydrologic conditions on reservoir system <br />behavior. Examples include evaluating the impacts of changes in operating strategy at a <br />group or sub-system of reservoirs or conducting climate change studies. These assessments <br />are generally informational in nature and are not tied to current operating conditions. A <br />range of historic hydrologic conditions also is used to evaluate these problems. <br /> <br />A summary of the scenarios being used in the design of the DSS is presented in Table I. <br />The table also provides an overview of the primary models, the interaction between resident <br />and non-resident models, and model applications for each scenario. This information should <br />be useful for understanding the functional requirements of the various components of the <br />modeling system. The texts of the problem scenarios are available from CADSWES (1993). <br /> <br />2-8 <br />