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f!"~'i~5 IJU1.1d Draft - 9/81 TABLE 5 Land Use Pattern for Increased Agricultural Production in the Southwest Region Year 2000 Acreage of Acreage ofc Projected waterb New New 1974a for Depletion Development Development Land Use Expansion Per Acre Likely Estimate High Estimate Crop Percent Percent Acre-Feet Acres ~ ~ Wheat 1.79 2.00 1.01 6B5 1,635 Corn Grain .OB Corn Silage 1.40 1.00 1.44 343 B17 Barley 1.09 2.00 1.01 685 1,635 Dry Beans .54 Oats .31 2.00 1.01 685 1,635 Alfalfa 23.05 25.00 2.44 B,567 20,433 Other Hay 12.B1 10.00 2.01 3,427 B,173 Tree Fruits .54 Pasture 5B.36 5B.00 2.01 19,B76 47,404 ) Vegetables .03 ...".. 100.00 100.00 2.05 34,26B B1,732 wt. avg_ a. Pasture and hay acreage were taken from the Census of Aqriculture, which is puhlished every five years. This section used Census data for the year 1969, pub- lished in 1972. The changes in the data on pasture and hay between 1969-1974 are insignificant for purposes of this analysis. All other acreage data are from the Colorado State Aqricultural Statistics and are constant for the year 1974 regard- less of the .year of their most recent publication. The changes in land use pat- terns between 1974 and the present only serve to reinforce the Projections for Expansion made in this table. Thus, picking another base year and recomputing land use relative to it would be a useless exercise, since the important variables for computing IIAcreage of New Development" are the "Percentage Projection for Expan- sion" and the "Weighted average Water Depletion per Acre." b. Water Depletion equals the sum of consumptive use and incidental loss under current technology and management. c. Equivalent full irrigation besed on available water of 70,250 acre-feet for the likely estimate and 167,550 acre-feet for the high estimate. (See Tables 1 and 2.)