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<br />OOJJ75 <br /> <br />.. <br /> <br />other constraints, such as alternative desalting plant costs. The 50 percent <br />accomplishment level graph attempts to show a more realistic portrayal based <br />on the last 9 years of actual program experience. <br /> <br />The target reductions under the most probable hydrology conditions antici- <br />pated for USDA and CRWQIP programs (fig. 13), can be met up to the year 2010. <br />Beyond the year 2010, other measures such as cloud seeding will be required. <br />It is also apparent from the figures that a basinwide cloud seeding program <br />(CREST case) will give added insurance of meeting the target requirements in <br />the face of unfavorable hydrology or lack of program accomplishments. The <br />more reasonable 50 percent level accomplishment (fig. 14) points out the need <br />for all programs to meet the most probable tar~et reductions except in rare <br />instances. At the 50 percent level of accomplishment, it should be noted <br />that there is a problem of meeting the TDS numeric criteria standards both in <br />the short term and in the long term. In summary, all three programs will be <br />needed to meet the most probable, long-term salt reduction objectives. CREST <br />and follow on basinwide operations are not considered to be competitive <br />programs but rather complementary programs to ongoing CRWQIP and USDA <br />efforts. <br /> <br />11. In evaluating the consequences of exceeding the TDS numeric criteria in <br />the Basin, the following conclusions can be summarized: <br /> <br />a. The approved TDS numeric criteria permit temporary increases above the <br />1972 levels if control measures are included in the ~lan. Temporary <br />increases for unfavorable reserVOlr condltlons and rlver runoff are also <br />considered to be in conformance with the numeric criteria provided that <br />TDS concentrations return to the criteria level when normal reservoir and <br />flow conditions resume. Unfortunately, there is no formal definition of <br />"temporary increases" in terms of time or the ;;mount of permissible <br />excursion from the numeric criteria. <br /> <br />b. If the numeric criteria are exceeded outside of the temporary increases <br />defined above, the legal argument that the states have set enforceable <br />numeric criteria standards could be open to litigation. One possible <br />consequence of litigation would be the establishment of new criteria <br />which could compromise the basinwide control approach and ultimately force <br />a moritorium or reduction for water resource development in the Upper <br />Basin. Legal challenges might also be expected where past water resource <br />developments documents have cited the basin salinity control program as a <br />mitigation measure for reducing salinity impacts. <br /> <br />c. Aside from the legal, political, and developmental consequences of <br />exceeding the TDS numeric criteria standards in the basin, the economic <br />impacts to the lower basin water users and the Republic of Mexico are <br />significant. For United States water users, total economic damages could <br />increase from a current (1982) level (with TDS at Imperial Dam approximately <br />825 mg/L) of $120 million per year to $238 million annually (for year <br />2010 and TDS at Imperial Dam = 1090 mg/L), unless controls are implemented. <br />The value of deteriorating water quality on international comity with <br />Mexico has not been quantified. <br /> <br />17 <br />