Laserfiche WebLink
<br />003151 <br />procedure would rely <br /> <br />Page 50 <br /> <br />on statistical analysis of historical data, and was deemed <br /> <br />both too costly and unnecessary for this initial reconnaissance investigation. <br /> <br />Instead, virtual virgin flows data were obtained from the Bureau of Reclamation <br /> <br />for the 72-year period for which they were available (1906 through 1977). These <br /> <br />data were based upon stream gage readings, which were then adjusted for <br /> <br />estimated withdrawals, return flows, reservoir evaporation, and channel losses, <br /> <br />all of which are known only imperfectly. <br /> <br />B. Economic Aspects <br /> <br />The initial plan was to investigate the likely uses of increased flows for <br /> <br />probable levels of water demand in the years 1985 and 1995. However, the states <br /> <br />of the Upper Division are currently using far less than their entitlements under <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />the Colorado River Compacts and it is impossible for them to create by 1995 the <br /> <br />additional reservoir storage which would be necessary to permit the diversion <br /> <br />and use of their full entitlements, whether or not the economic demand for that <br /> <br />arrangements which govern the allocation if Colorado River water between the <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />water had materialized by that time. As a result, the institutional <br /> <br />Upper Division and the Lower Division, and between the several states of the <br /> <br />Upper Division, would not be invoked during this time period, as they have not <br /> <br />been invoked in the past. Consequently, it seemed advisable to project demands <br /> <br />well beyond 1995, in order to investigate how the existing institutional <br /> <br />arrangements might affect the use of increased flows. Two scenarios, the first <br /> <br />based on current development and demand conditions and the second based upon <br /> <br />full development, as exemplified by planned projects, were ultimately selected <br /> <br />for the analysis. <br /> <br />Table V-2 summarizes shortages in the Upper Basin and Lower Basin under <br /> <br />water demands which characterize the so-called current and full development <br /> <br />scenarios under existing institutions (Case 1,A and B). They differ with <br />