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<br />003118 <br /> <br />Page 17 <br /> <br />eapability to simultaneously evaluate the effeets of runoff inereases on an <br /> <br />intrastate basis (within the state of Colorado). The basin-wide model <br /> <br />aggregates all flows and demands on the mains tern of the Colorado River above <br /> <br />Grand Junetion, whieh allows some demands to be satisfied in the model by flows <br /> <br />to which they would not have physical access in the real system. In addition, <br /> <br />aggregation conceals the finer structure of the Colorado water rights system <br /> <br />that allocates flows in the Basin. For this purpose,(~as used. DWDSYM <br /> <br />is a water rights accounting model which simulates the operation of the Colorado <br /> <br />River above Glenwood Springs, including the City of Denver water supply system. <br /> <br />Allocation of water within this sub-basin is largely influenced by a relatively <br /> <br />senior hydropower water right located just upstream of Glenwood Springs and <br /> <br />below the Arapahoe National Forest. DWOSYM simulates a call upon the river <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />originating from this water right. Operating DWDSYM under assumptions of both <br /> <br />natural and enhanced streamflows allowed for evaluation of the effects of flow <br /> <br />increases upon water demands in the sub-basin. <br /> <br />B. <br /> <br />Assumptions <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />As in any investigation of this kind, several assumptions were made, all of <br /> <br />whic~ limit or condition the validity of the conclusions which may be drawn. <br /> <br />Five of those assumptions are: <br /> <br />1. Expected runoff <br /> <br />The hydrologic experience of the 72-year period of 1906-1977 is a valid <br /> <br />representation of future conditions with respect to all of the statistical <br /> <br />moments of the runoff frequency distribution, and the serial correlation of <br /> <br />successive runoff events. It is recognized, however, that long-term hydrologic <br /> <br />conditions may be different from the historic observations. <br />