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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />or in planning to meet future water needs. Future populations and water <br /> <br />demands, however, are subject to many factors which cannot be accurately <br /> <br /> <br />forecast; consequently, this study examined a range of possible growth <br /> <br />rates over the next three decades. The reliability of the City's water <br /> <br /> <br />supply (including the anticipated gain in future water supplies due to <br /> <br /> <br />development) was estimated for each of six planning scenarios; these <br /> <br /> <br />scenarios correspond to projected levels of development in the years 2000 <br /> <br /> <br />and 2015 under low, moderate and high growth rates. <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />Total Yater Supply Available to City - The physical availability of water <br />in the CBT and Yindy Gap projects as well as native streamflow derived from <br />the Big Thompson watershed was determined. It was necessary to determine <br />what portion of the physical supply could be diverted for City use under <br />Colorado Yater Law and the management policies of the NCYCD and HS-NCYCD. <br />For the Big Thompson River direct-flow rights, this determination entails <br />allocation of available water in accordance with water rights and the terms <br />of the Loveland Transfer Decree (Yater Case Number 82-CY-202A). The <br />availability of CBT water during any year will be partially dependent upon <br />the annual "quota" set by the NCYCD; the quota defines the percentage of an <br />owners shares which may be delivered in a given year. <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />Evaluation of System Yield - The results of the previous steps produced a <br />1000-year monthly record of the total quantity of water theoretically <br />available to the City. System yield and reliability were determined by <br />using this 1000-year record of available water as inflow to the City water <br />treatment plant. For each month, the City demand was compared to the <br />available supply. Any excess water from rights granted in the Transfer <br />Decree was stored in Loveland's existing Green Ridge Glade reservoir for <br />future use subject to capacity, operational and legal constraints. <br /> <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />If the demand exceeded the available supply (including storage) in any <br />month, the shortage was recorded as a "deficit" and that month was <br />identified as a "failure", i.e., a failure to meet the specified demand. <br />The reliability of the system was measured by the probability of failure. <br /> <br />Hi <br /> <br />I <br />