PROJ00251

• Contract/PO #: C153375
• Contractor Name: Canon City, City of
• Contract Type: Loan
• Water District: 12
• County: Fremont
• Bill Number: SB 81-439
• Loan Projects - Doc Type: Feasibility Study

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Canon City planning area and Fremont County as a whole are likely to experience
a dramatic influx of population in-migration due to industrial expansion and
mineral extraction. The higher range population estimates are especially true
of the figures developed in the Eastern Fremont County 201 Facilities Plan in
May of 1977. This plan states that the high level estimation of 51,475 per-
sons in the year 2000 is likely in the ge09raphic area from Canon City to Flor-
ence. In terms of land use changes, the 201 Facilities Plan also reveals
that there is a strong possibility of dense urban development along the Arkansas
Valley.

These higher population estimates and the corresponding land use ramifications
have strong implications since the governmental entities throughout eastern
Fremont County are not prepared for this rate of growth in terms of fiscal and
budgetary capabilities, land use regulations and public facilities and services.
Actually, the majority of the public officials and citizens in .the Canon City
planning area do not desire the formation of a large metropolitan area. In
fact, there is a strong local desire to take all necessary measures that will
ensure that modest rates of growth occur in a planned and controlled fashion.
This is not to say that the high population figures are unrealistic, but it
does indicate that local residents are more concerned with the quality of their
environment than with mere quantity.

Table lIon the following page prese~ts a series of low, medium and high popu-
lation estimates that were prepared for the Canon City planning area. The
estimates range from 1978 to the year 2000, utilizing five year planning incre-
ments. There was also no attempt to Show the expected population changes in
the respective incorporated and unincorporated portions of the planning area
since annexation procedures are likely.

The low estimate assumes a 1.5 percent average annual population increase, or
approximately 15 percent per decade. This rate of growth closely corresponds
to the population trend experienced throughout the 1960 decade. Essentially,
this estimation assumes less growth i~ the economy than was experienced from
1970 to 1978, particularly in the manufacturing, services and trade sectors.
By using this low estimation rate, a population increase of 7,830 persons is
expected in the planning area by the year 2000.

The medium population estimate assumes a moderate rate of growth similar to
the population increases that have occurred since 1970. This projection
assumes a 3 percent per year increase, or an increase of 17,389 persons by the
year 2000.

The high estimations assume that many new large scale basic industries (manu-
facturing and mining processing activities) will locate in the planning area.
The high estimation is based orl a 5 percent average annual increase, or an
increase of 38,897 persons by the year 2000.

Thus, the Table illustrates that the population in the planning area may range
between 28,034 persons and 59,101 persons by the year 2000, depending on the
rate of economic growth. However, the medium population projection is believed
to represent the population increases that can reasonably be expected during
the planning period and will be used for comprehensive planning purposes.

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