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<br />Feasibility Report for Improvement of Paonia's Water Supply System
<br />Town of Paonia
<br />April 21, 2000
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<br />this average masks the fact that the Town grew very little during the 1980s, but has grown at an
<br />average annual rate of 3 percent per year since 1990,
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<br />Given the fact thatthe portion of the Paonia water service area outside the Town boundaries does
<br />not correspond well to traditional Census jurisdictional boundaries, it is more difficult to obtain
<br />a complete picture of historical growth in this area, However, BBC's analysis of 1990 Census
<br />data on the age of houses in this area compared with houses within the Town ofPaonia indicates
<br />that growth outside the Town has been more rapid than in-Town growth duringJach of the past
<br />several decades, We estimate that, on average, the population outside 'of the'Town but in the
<br />water service area has been increasing at about 1.5 times the growth rfte of in~ Town population,
<br />f- 'i ,~ e "
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<br />Economic Factors Affecting Future Growth ,"\~:Jff;U~".
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<br />For a relatively small community, Paonia's economic b.a.se is highly diverse,I:li~iolically, the
<br />primary economic activities in the area have been coal mi~il}g an.d agriculture, However, during
<br />the 1960s-1970s, and again during the 1990s, the Town haS attracted many new residents
<br />because of the quality oflife available in Paonia, The Town.,has become a center for artists,
<br />including photographers, bronze sculptors, and ivoIXcarvers,
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<br />There may be a tendency to focus on the a.rt center,anqil,ll~lity otHfe aspect of what attracts
<br />people to Paonia, while overlooking the.9ontinued impoi:t<lps,cofthe community's traditional
<br />economic base, It is BBC's opinion that traditional ecoll9$iCactivity, particularly mining,
<br />continues to support a substantial portion of Paonia's p~pulation and economy, Figure 4.4
<br />compares Paonia's population yvlilithe number of m.ii1ers employed in Delta County and
<br />~, -, - - .~
<br />Gunnison County coal mines fr.<:iffi 1970tbrough 1997, Figure 4.4 illustrates a fairly strong
<br />correlation between Paonia's population and the regional mining activity,
<br />...":>~;:-'h~" .. "::->:~\ "
<br />Based on]~B~:s previous expt\J,t\ln~e, the relationship between coal mining and the Town's
<br />populatiori rnaY<ge one of the m9s~\mcertain aspects ofPaonia's future. Short-term prospects
<br />for high BTU, 16w-sulfur Weste'ru;~o~l continue to be very positive, as many utilities continue'
<br />to convert fr(),m'tradlt!onal EasierqU.S, suppliers. Longer-term prospects are much more
<br />uncertain in the face ofeIectric utility deregulation, efforts by some utilities to convert to lower
<br />BTU and lower-cost Wy6iningcoal sources, and concerns about global carbon emissions, As
<br />a result of this and other uncertainties regarding future growth, future water demands were
<br />projected under three alternative scenarios,
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<br />!:Il GEl Consultants, Inc.
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<br />lIP ROJECTS\9936SIReportsIFeasibility. wpd
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