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4.5 FUTURE WATER pVAILABILITY WITH NO DEVELOPMENT <br />The hydrologic model discussed previously was operated to evaluate the <br />ability of the Study Area's current water supplies to meet forecasted water <br />demands. The Moderate Demand Scenario was used to investigate this "No-Action <br />Alternative." <br />Municipal and industrial (M&I) demands far very small systems in the <br />basin were not explicitly modeled. Of the 12 M&I demands explicitly <br />represented in the basin model, shortages occurred to only one; a mining <br />demand of ]20 af per year located near Crested Butte. Occasional shorteges to <br />this demand occur because of a combination of limited physical supply and the <br />fact that its water right has a very junior priority. <br />Agricultural demands in this No-Action Alternative are those associated <br />with providing a full waier supply to currently irrigated lands; no new lands <br />are assumed to be brought into production. Shortages to these irrigation <br />demands are summarized in Table 4.2. The shortages shown in the table are <br />shortages to depletion demands; shortages to headgate diversion demands may be <br />up to four times the shortages shown in the table and diversion shortages <br />would accur more frequently than indicated in the table. <br />Further evaluation of these aqricultural shortages indicated that the <br />predicted Blue River sub-basin shortage may be overstated. Records of <br />irrigated acreage in this sub-basin are poor to non-existent and could be the <br />cause of overstating the demands. Also, the level of detail of the model <br />makes verification of the adequacy of water supply in this particular <br />sub-basin difficult. It was also determined subsequent to modeling that <br />recent purchases of large tracts of land in the sub-basin have resulted in <br />significant amounts of land being taken out of production. In addition, <br />discussions with the Water Commissioner of that District revealed that <br />significant shortages have not occurred historically in the Blue River service <br />area. For the purposes of this study, therefore, the Blue River sub-basin was <br />not considered to be an area with significant agricultural water shortages. <br />i�f <br />