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� 1 4.0 FORECAST OF FUTURE DEMANDS AND WATER AVAILABILITY � 4.1 INTRODUCTION Future water demands within the Study Area were forecasted. Forecasts � were prepared for municipal, industrial and agricultural use through the year 2035. Three separate forecasts were prepared for each water use sector to _ J reflect Baseline, Moderate and High eco�omic growth scenarios which are � discussed below. The basin model was then operated to assess the ability of � current water supplies to meet the future demands. 4.2 FORECAST OF FUTURE MUNICIDAL AND INDUSTRIAL DEMAND The methodology adopted in this st�dy to forecast future municipal and industrial water demand consisted of preparing an estimate of future population growth and applying the historical average consumptive use figures to the population projection. Population forecasts were prepared based on three growth scenarios. The baseline scenario assumes that economic growth in the Study Area will have the same relationship to national and world economic conditions as in the past and that the net natural increase in population follows the U.S. Census Bureau's Middle Series projection. The moderate scenario assumes slightly higher economic growth due to higher energy prices and uses the average of the Census Bureau's Middle and Nigh projections of net natural increase in population. The high scenario assumes a higher rate of economic growth, mainly due to growth in the energy sector and uses the Census Bureau's high projection of net natural increases in population. Historic water use data combines municipal and light industrial uses and Itherefore these categories were retained as a combined M&I demand forecast. Other industrial water usage was determined separately by evaluating the I potential for increased mining development and adding that demand to the � present mining demand in the study area. � 4-1