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<br />The July 12 estimated flow values are far greater than the FEMA loo-year values. There is <br />obviously some question as to the validity of the FEMA discharges that are reported in the Flood <br />Insurance Study. The USGS, CWCB, FEMA, and other agencies will be discussing what might be <br />done to adjust the Flood Insurance Study values. <br /> <br />A streamflow gaging station is located on the South Platte River at South Platte (downstream of the <br />confluence with the North Fork) recorded the flash flood event. However, it did not accurately <br />record the peak stage or discharge. A stream gage on the North Forkjust upstream of its confluence <br />with the South Platte River was discontinued approximately 15 years ago. The highest recorded <br />peak discharge on the discontinued gage was about 2,100 cfs in 1949. When estimates of flows at <br />the discontinued gage site are available, they will be provided. The USGS will be looking into how <br />to retrofit the South Platte gage so that future flow estimates during large floods may be more <br />reliable. <br /> <br />ROLE OF THE FIRE <br /> <br />In May of 1996, and intense forest fire burned approximately 12,000 acres in the rugged foothills of <br />Pike National Forest, Jefferson County. The fire was known as the Buffalo Creek Fire. The <br />communities at risk during the fire included Buffalo Creek, Dome Rock, Foxton, Ferndale, South <br />Platte. Several homes were destroyed or damaged by the fire. In addition, vegetative and soil <br />conditions in the burned areas were changed (dramatically in some areas) from their "normal" <br />conditions. <br /> <br />The thunderstorm that occurred on July 12, 1996 produced rainfall that fell on both burned and <br />unburned areas in the forest. The big questions on everybody's mind are "what affect did the fire <br />have on the flood?" and "Can it happen again in the near future?" These questions are still under <br />investigation. At this point in time they have not been fully answered by any means. Experts agree <br />that the forest fire did have an affect on the flood flows and on the amount of sediment and debris <br />that came down from the watershed. However, it is impossible right now to say exactly how much <br />the fire did affect the flood flows experienced on the night of July 12. Both short-term and long- <br />term study efforts are undeIWay that will help to quantitatively describe the effects that the burned <br />area had during that flood. Once the rainfall amounts and rainfall areas are compared to the burned <br />areas and unburned areas, experts can better define the potential for future flooding in the area. <br /> <br />As more information and results become available, it will be published in future reports. <br /> <br />Q <br />