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1/26/2010 10:10:10 AM
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Title
Mathematical Modeling of a Sociological and Hydrologic Decision System
Date
6/1/1978
Prepared By
Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources, Utah State Univ.
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />element would cause greater concern than elsewhere. <br />The weightings of thai factor in influencing Ihe evalu- <br />ation by thai group wouid be much greater. Coupled <br />with this value, a threat to it would bring about far <br />greater sensitivity and a concomitant expansion of <br />action. <br /> <br />Threshold Level <br /> <br />The interest of the public OJ of a special inlerest <br />group may not be stirred until an effect reaches a cer- <br />tain "threshold level." This level needs to be reached <br />before a group cares enough to act. <br /> <br />The phenomena of expansion effecl and thres- <br />hold level for special interest groups are handled in the <br />model by selling minimum values on each of the Ac- <br />ceptance Functions associaled with proposal character- <br />istics in the equation for public evaluation. It is as- <br />sumed that an aclion will not be blocked unless the <br />value characteristic falls below a certain Ihreshold <br /> <br />level. The selling of these levels, one for each faclor <br />about which special inleresl opposition may develop, <br />is part of model calibration from experience data. <br /> <br />The assumption thai an agency plan would not <br />be blocked unless sufficient opposition occurs is not <br />theorelically in accord with mulliple objective plan- <br />ning where altemalive plans are also evaluated. But <br />il is funclional since alternate infers a besl or preferred <br />plan. Threshold values could also be established to <br />indicale promotion of a plan by a special interest <br />group. This might reinforce the previous positive evalu- <br />alion of a proposal by the decision agency, but it <br />would not change Ihe basic direction of approval or <br />rejection nor remove a deleterious effect on some <br />other factor about which strong opposilion may focus. <br />Such an additional disapproval may be sufficient 10 <br />cause rejection. Acceptance is a function of the de- <br />gree of opposition and degree of favorability. Concen- <br />tration was placed on opposition by setting minimum <br />levels of acceptability on Ihe Acceplance Function. <br /> <br />ss <br />
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