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1/26/2010 10:10:10 AM
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Title
Mathematical Modeling of a Sociological and Hydrologic Decision System
Date
6/1/1978
Prepared By
Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources, Utah State Univ.
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />od will be applied or not, bul another agency that has <br />either teclmicaI or financial resources necessary to the <br />projecl may be able to affecl a decision made by ils <br />power to control or wilhhold its resources. This abil- <br />ity to affect a decision indirectly is as important a <br />type of power as authority. <br /> <br />Agency actions also are influenced by agency <br />administraloTS who may view exactly the same situa- <br />tion in different ways. For this reason an effort was <br />made to obtain information on both the perceptions <br />held by Ihe various agency administraloTS and the <br />stated policies of the agency. <br /> <br />Characteristics of planning agencies <br /> <br />Planning agencies al the federal, state, and locai <br />leveis also influence decisions made wilhin the counly. <br />These agencies act primarily in a planning capacily <br />while the counly has the major decision-making power <br />on what policies are implemented. This view is simp- <br />lified but was adequale in developing the model. <br /> <br />Several agencies can act in a planning capacity. <br />On the federal level, the Army Corps of Engineers <br />plans for flood control. Provision has aiso been made <br />in the model 10 consider inputs from private groups <br />and consultants. The master storm drainage pian for <br />the Salt Lake County area was designed by a private <br />engineering firm engaged by the County Flood Con. <br />trol Department. The influence of various private <br />citizen groups on the planning function can also be <br />included in this section of the model. <br /> <br />Planning and decision [unctions <br /> <br />The planning and decision functions are per- <br />formed by the model, Figure 4.1 within Sections Two <br />and Three, respectively. Planning and decisions may <br />be made by the same or by separate agencies, or sev- <br />eral agencies may share responsibility for a single func- <br />tion and these functions may be conducted either se- <br />quentially or simultaneously or both. fu the current <br />version of the model, only one decision agency is iden- <br />tified,lhe County Flood Control Agency. <br /> <br />The impact of Section Three is decisions that <br />are based on Ihe evaluations made of the planning <br />actions in Section Two. AI this point, potential ac- <br />tions which mighl be supplied by the planning agen- <br />cies are screened in order to reduce the number to be <br />evaluated in Section Three. After screening, the de- <br />cision agency evaluates each potential action by much <br />the same procedure followed in the planning agency <br />evaluation. <br /> <br />The second or planning section and the third or <br />decision section of the model are designed to function <br />in much the same way. As indicated by Figure 4.1, <br />feedback from Section Three is sent 10 prior sections <br /> <br />of the model. Output is the "preferred solution or <br />soiutions" 10 flooding and water conlroi problems as <br />determined by decision agency evaluations. In the <br />case of favorable solutions mutually exclusive, the one <br />with Ihe largest positive evaluation is assumed to be <br />chosen by the decision agency. <br /> <br />Identifying flooding problems <br /> <br />In Ihe model represenled by Figure 4.1, the sec- <br />tion titled, "Planning Agencies" represents function- <br />ing bureaucracies whose missions are to define and <br />solve urban flooding problems. These functions are <br />performed within the limits of their organizational <br />characteristics and responsibilities. An agency may be <br />aierted 10 a flooding problem by either hydrologic in- <br />formation from Ihat componenl of the model or by <br />public perception of flood probabilities. Under nor- <br />mal conditions, a planning agency will continue to <br />search for flooding problems by sludying the hydro- <br />logic system. This is because it is characteristic of any <br />bureaucracy to develop work in its area of responsi- <br />bility and thereby maintain itself or grow in fulfilling <br />its mission (Selznick: 25); this work must be within <br />the prescribed legai and social limits of the bureau- <br />cracy. <br /> <br />The pressure exerted through public opinion <br />may be varied. When the public concern about flood. <br />ing is high, Ihe agency will seek changes 10 the hydro- <br />logic system which would reduce public concern. Pub. <br />lic concern may be lowered through I) feedback of <br />"expert knowledge and opinion" which indicates a <br />less serious flooding condition than originally supposed <br />or, 2) through action to alleviate flooding conditions <br />and by the subsequent feedback of this information <br />from the hydroiogic system (present condilion of the <br />physical syslem) to the Public Opinion section of the <br />sociological model. <br /> <br />The Planning Agency section of the model is <br />connected to the first part through the "pressure" <br />described above. Even though the pressure or public <br />perception of need for flood control is general, agen- <br />cies may behave in different ways because some agen- <br />cies are more sensitive to public pressure than others. <br />This varying sensitivity and other differences are noted <br />through differences in the characleristics of Ihe par- <br />ticular agencies simulated in the model. <br /> <br />After a flooding problem is recognized, the <br />agencies involved must decide whether or not action <br />is needed to prolect endangered properly or persons. <br />The decision depends upon 1) an evaluation of the <br />conditions and factors in the hydrologic syslem, 2) <br />the degree of development within the endangered <br />area, and 3) the llpressure" coming from the fIrst, or <br />public, section of the model. If flooding occurs, an <br />agency may feel pressured 10 get on an emergency <br />basis, and an emergency decision process would be <br /> <br />46 <br />
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