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11 Ecology 11 refers to the effect that a project has on the balance of nature or in other words on the re- lationships belween organisms and Iheir physical en. vironment. The remaining variables, "acceptance of an ac- tion by other agencies" and "acceptance of an action by relevant populalions and inleresls," refer to the attitudes of "significant others II about the action. A "significant other" is defmed in this context as any group whose attitudes influence the attitude of the first group concerned loward the object being evalu- ated. For a particular flood conlrol proposal 10 be acceplable to any group or agency, the value of each characteristic and attitude must meet certain mini- mum levels. If a proposal is sufficiently negative on any important function, it will be Slopped.! These minimum requiremenls are based on: I) Standards set by outside sources, such as laws and regulations; 2) policy sel within the planning or decision agency; 3) judgment of agency officials and administrators; and 4) influences from other groups. If public or agen. cy attention is focused on negative aspects of a pro- ject, the chances of acceptance are decreased. Elements of an Open System Model In addition to the possibilily of different agen- cies performing more than one function is more than one stage of the decision-making process there is also the possibility of several functions occurring within a stage. These functions provide for either an open sys~ tern model or one which permits feedback for outside systems to impacllhe syslem at differenl stages. Fig- ure 4.2 illustrates this for the first Ihree stages and shows where public hearings and other external or in- ternal inputs may occur. These sub-processes mayor may not open up the system at all levels depending upon the methods used by the relevant agencies. Figure 4.1 illuslrates a Iraditional or nearly closed system approach to public agency planning, but the recent tend has been toward a greater public role in planning. This change has helped the agencies to adjusl their system of decision-making to place grealer emphasis on public input. The model assumes that once a Ilneed" has been idenlified and inserted inlo the public agency decision track that an agency will behave as a direction orient~ ed system to bring about a decision on that need. This IThis would be under normal conditions. A strong enough anxiety over flooding could overcome other consid- erations and woukl be reflected in the public perception and ne.ed for flood control. This would occur in crisis situations where flooding is actually or potentially extremely serious. is a theoretical problem of complex organization and includes both "structural" and "interactionist" con- cepts of a social system. tlSocial conflict theory II can also be useful in the analysis of the actions among vari- ous publics, special interests, and mission oriented agencies in a public decision. Elements of the Conceptual Model Figure 4.1 is divided into six stages of human behavior in a public flood conlrol decision. The mod. el, as represented by these six seclions, contains: 1) The state of public opinion, public perceptions of flooding and level of information about Ihese prob- lems; 2) the decision and planning agencies that are involved in the earliesl slages of the decision Ihal a plan is needed and develop the first plan; 3) Ihe de- cision agency making the decision aboul the initial plan, or the structure for analysis and adoption of a plan; 4) Ihe public reaclion Ihrough an acceptance, adjustmenl or rejection process; 5) the making of the final decision with a subcycle for alternative actions; and 6) implementation. These six stages provide an organizational framework for the conceptual model. Difficulties were encountered in modeling some of these social components. As further insights into lhe system are developed, both the conceptual and mathe- malical models can be improved. Section One: Public Opinion The primary variable in Ihe first stage of the flow chart is perception of a need for improved flood control in the local area. This was also identified as "general concern about flooding." This concern is ex- pected to be directly affecled by personal flooding experience and the extent to which a respondent is informed of local flooding problems. Assuming this expectation is correct, concern is directly linked to the hydrologic system. The frequency of occurrence and extent of flooding, and therefore the likelihood of personal experience with flooding problems, are largely functions of the hydrologic system. A widespread perception among Ihe public of a need for improved flood control would be expecled to culminate into a concensus of a need for a plan by Ihe flood-control decision agency since more people are likely to put pressure on the agency to control flooding. Experience within the study area has shown this to be true. Whenever people perceived that the likelihood of flooding was high, they lended to call the local County Flood Conlrol Departmenl to re- quest action. This relationship should be true of long term dangers as well as immediate ones as long as the exposed population is aware of the situation. An at- lilude wilhout overt behavior by people will exerl little or no influence on a planning agency because the agency has no way of knowing that the attitude exists. 43