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Title
Mathematical Modeling of a Sociological and Hydrologic Decision System
Date
6/1/1978
Prepared By
Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources, Utah State Univ.
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />indirecl method cannol be defended as reliable for <br />model application but was selected as the mosl prac- <br />ncal melhod for supplying Ihe needed data for cali- <br />brating Ihe model. <br /> <br />Conlent Analysis of Agency Information <br /> <br />Techniques of contenl analysis were used 10 de- <br />velop a method for scoring and tabulaling Ihe dala <br />obtalned in agency and group interviews. Content <br />analysis has been used 10 render unlike data into like <br />forms for comparison and to oblain quantilative mea- <br />sures from qualitative dala for mathematical analyses. <br />Variations permit one to compare several sources of <br />information or one or more sources at different per- <br />iods of time (see also Holsti, 1968). One lechnique <br />employed here was a simple count of each lime an <br />interviewee mentioned an agency, public group, or <br />individual associated with an agency or group. It was <br />thought thai such a count would reveal which agen- <br />cies are considered most important. <br /> <br />The type of relalionship one agency had with <br />others that it mentioned was also explored. Each <br />slalemenl that referenced a Iype of relationship was <br />extracted and the proper nouns removed. Later <br />"judges" were asked to evaluate these statements and <br />rank the legal and hierarchical aspects of the relation- <br />ships. For example, interview notes might contain a <br />statement such as. "We must submit our plans to the <br />County Commission for approval." The statement <br />would be put in the following form: "X must submit <br />its plans to Y for approval." This and all other state- <br />ments which mighl have some bearing on the legal <br />and hierarchical relationship between two agencies <br />were then grouped and considered by the judges. An <br />example of such a set of statements might be as fol- <br />lows: "X must submit its plans to Y for approval." <br />!ly determines which problems X will study." !ly <br />has X hold monthly public meetings." <br /> <br />Wilhin such a set of statements, X is always the <br />same agency and Y is always Ihe same agency. The <br />judges were individually asked to review the set of <br />statements and Ihen classify the relationship of X to <br />Y as an hierarchical or horizontal power relationship, <br />etc. Olher stalements were similarly extracted and <br />Ihe judges were asked 10 evaluate the quality a~d in- <br />tensity of the relationship, the involvement of each <br />group in flood control, Ihe intensity of the involve- <br />ment, the time orientation of the group (Le., if its <br />plans were of a short term or a long term nature), and <br />the group reaction to various flood conlrol proposals. <br /> <br />The choice of information to be probed by con- <br />tent analysis was limited by the time available for inter- <br />views. It took some time to develop a feel for Ihe <br />kinds of questions to ask officials. One interview did <br />not always conlain answers to queslions probed in <br /> <br />other interviews, and it was not until interviews were <br />well along Ihal the list of questions was able to be <br />~ta.ndardized. Some inlerviews occurred in public or <br />ill mteragency meetings where the researcher was not <br />at full liberty to ask queslions. Anolher deficiency in <br />this approach is thai inlerviews are recorded by nole <br />taking, and quotations may nol be complete or may <br />be paraphrased. Ideally, every inlerview should be <br />recorded verbatim. Conl.ent analysis, however, is a <br />viable method for quantifying qualitative dala. <br /> <br />Data Analysis for Sociological <br />Variables <br /> <br />Stalislical Tesls Used and Identification <br />of Variables <br /> <br />After the public interviewing was completed, a <br />number of steps were necessary to prepare the data <br />to develop relationships for Ihe sociological compon- <br />ent of the model. Each response to each ilem was <br />coded and punched on cards for compuler process- <br />ing. Responses to each ilem were first tabulaled and <br />analyzed for distribution and number of no-answers. <br /> <br />A second sel of decks was then made for cross- <br />labulation of pairs of items and the results were ana- <br />lyzed for significance by several non-paramelric and <br />correla~ion tests. Chi square, Cramer's V, Contingency <br />CoeffiCient, and Gamma rank-order (Nie el aI., 1970: <br />275-277; also note James et aI., 1971: 57). The ob- <br />jective was to identify significanl variables and estab- <br />lish the relative imporlance of Ihose identified. <br /> <br />The principal method used in quantifying social <br />relationships for inclusion in the model was multiple <br />regression analysis. Multiple regression equations were <br />developed for the significant relationships for inclu- <br />sion in the sociological component of the model. Cer- <br />tain variables which had been assumed to be indepen- <br />dent, however, appeared in several equations. As an <br />example, the variable titled, "Knowledge of flood con- <br />trol projects" was found to be correlated with whether <br />persons favored or opposed particular projects. In <br />order to increase understanding of the "knowledge <br />variables, and those variables which might be corre- <br />lated with it was run as a dependent variable with <br />some of the other variables being used as independent, <br />or In other words, as predictors of knowledge." <br />Through lhis method. knowledge of interrelationships <br />among .variables was increased. Another example is <br />shown m the model presented in Chapter Y, where <br />Concern About Flooding is the dependenl variable <br />and Perceived likelihood of Flooding is an indepen- <br />dent variable in Equation I (shown later in Table 5.9). <br /> <br />Several studies demonstrate the versatilily of re- <br />gression analysis in the social sciences. Techniques <br />Slmilar 10 those used elsewhere were applied in this <br /> <br />12 <br />
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