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<br />CHAPTER II <br /> <br />METHODOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIOLOGICAL AND <br />HYDROLOGIC ELEMENTS <br /> <br />The Study Format <br /> <br />The model was developed in three phases. The <br />firsl goal was 10 identify sociological and hydrologic <br />components, develop a conceptual framework for re- <br />lationships among them, and posl.ulate mathematical <br />expressions defming Ihe relationships in terms of the <br />identified components. The second phase was Ihe de- <br />velopmenl of operative sociological and hydrologic <br />models as well as the collection and analysis of dala <br />to calibrale and test Ihem. The third phase was cali- <br />bration, testing, and revision of the total model as well <br />as its use in simulation analyses. <br /> <br />The procedure may be ou tlined as follows: <br /> <br />I Struclure of the Modeling Process, Social <br />and Physical (nole Figures 1.4 and 4.1): <br /> <br />A. Developing a conceptual social mod- <br />el of Ihe decision system. <br /> <br />B. Developing a theoretical conceptual <br />struclure of Ihe social model for cali- <br />bration. <br />1. Conceptual elements: acceptance <br />function, etc. <br />2. Identification of social variables <br />related to stages of Ihe model, <br />Table 2.1. <br /> <br />C. Developing the mathematical model: <br />1. Calibration of Ihe social variables. <br />2. Programming and testing the cali- <br />braled model. <br /> <br />D. Developing the hydrologic model: <br />1. Preliminary development. <br />2. Expansion. <br />3. Identification and description of <br />the physical functions of the <br />hydrologic system that impacts <br />upon the social system. <br /> <br />II. Simulation Operations of the Model. <br /> <br />Collection and Analysis of Social Data <br />for Variable Selection <br /> <br />Field dala from an urbanized area of the waler- <br />shed were used to gain a conceplual understanding of <br />the social system and to test mathemalical relation- <br />ships. Various procedures were used to obtain the nec- <br />essary field data, to process these data, and to develop <br />Ihe framework for the formulation of malhematical <br />relalionships. <br /> <br />Preliminary Identificalion of Variables <br /> <br />A variety of sources provided information for <br />idenlifying sociological variables. When this project <br />began, work was already in progress on defining vari. <br />abies for predicting the response of the sociological <br />systems to flood control problems in the Sail Lake <br />County area (Andrews and Geertsen, 1974a). These <br />survey data provided preliminary information for de- <br />fining social variables to begin Ihe firsl phase of work. <br />The survey melhod was used to obtain information on <br />flood conlrol perception from the public in order to <br />identify social variables associated with the physical <br />aspects of flooding. <br /> <br />The preliminary survey sampled randomly sel- <br />ected individuals of the areas studied 10 determine at- <br />titudes, feit needs, perspectives, perceptions, know- <br />ledge, impact of flooding problems. and other factors <br />related to flood control. In addition, information <br />was gathered on overt opposition to or support for <br />flood control proposals and membership in certain <br />groups. Demographic and other social characteristics <br />of Ihose interviewed were obtained. <br /> <br />Additional questions were asked all those who <br />had heard of proposed fiood control plans for the loc. <br />al area. Such a respondent was asked to rate each pro. <br />posal according to: cost, effectiveness for flood con- <br />trol, effect on recreation, appearance, and ecological <br />effect (Variables 168-208 Appendix A). This helped <br />to determine Ihe relative importance of the respon- <br /> <br />9 <br />