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Title
Mathematical Modeling of a Sociological and Hydrologic Decision System
Date
6/1/1978
Prepared By
Institute for Social Science Research on Natural Resources, Utah State Univ.
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />ject to change as more information is obtained. the <br />changes can be in eilher the form of the process equa- <br />tions or in Ihe way they are combined to represenl the <br />system in order to malch Ihe mathematical construc- <br />tion more closely to reality. <br /> <br /> <br />Real <br />Ylorld <br /> <br />'i. <br />~ <br /> <br />. <br />. <br /> <br />\j <br />c .Itr <br /> <br />Figure 1.3. Steps in the development of a model of a <br />real world system. <br /> <br />Conceptualizing the System <br /> <br />The social response to the urban flood control <br />problem is seen as being composed of interrelated and <br />interacting subsystems or parts: <br /> <br />The most general and fundamental prop- <br />erty of a system is the interdependence of parts <br />or variables. Interdependence consists of the ex- <br />istence of determinate relationships among the <br />parts or variables as contrasted with randomness <br />of variability ,.. (Parsons and Shils, 1951: 107). <br /> <br />Such a situation was hypothesized for the initial con- <br />ceptualization of the sociological syslem related to <br />flooding and flood-conlrol. <br /> <br />The inlerdependent parts are calied the elements <br />of the system. Systems are composed of interrelated, <br />connected, and inleracting elements linked to form a <br />unIty or whole. Modeling a syslem requires identify- <br />ing the system elements and determining the charac- <br />teristics of the interrelationships among them. <br /> <br />Social systems, those which are composed of <br />social elements, have many interrelated and interact- <br />ing elemenls. Behaviorial research and theory indi- <br />cate that cultural commonalities of characteristics, <br />values, and behavior exist among individuals. It is <br />these commonalities thai provide a basis for modeling. <br /> <br />Figure 1.4 notes four inleracting groups of peo- <br />ple who respond to urban flood problems and thus <br />need to be represenled in the conceptual model of <br />the social system for this sludy. These groups are: <br />I) individuals; 2) governing or regulating institutions <br /> <br />or bodies (federal, state, or local) having executive, <br />legislative and judicial function; 3) other inslitutions <br />(for example, educational, economic, and religious); <br />4) other groups (for example, special inlerest groups, <br />etc.). <br /> <br />Individuals are included separalely in the con- <br />ceptual model because they are able to influence flood <br />control policy and the effectiveness of flood conlrol <br />design bolh as owners or managers and by interacting <br />with Ihe other three groups. The tolal conceptual <br />model needs 10 include an individual acting both as a <br />single unil and as a part of a group. <br /> <br />One individual can interact with more than one <br />group. In this manner, some individuals playa greal- <br />er role in the formation and implementation of re- <br />source policy than others. Also, the amount of "inputll <br />loot an individual can inlroduce into a particular group <br />varies from person to person and from group to group. <br />Individuals and groups possess specific differing and <br />changing attitudes in relation 10 many factors such as <br />aeslhelics and recreation and consequently have diff- <br />erenl types of influences; both attitudes and influences <br />change wilh them. <br /> <br />Management decisions and their implementation <br />are outputs of a social system. This output comes <br />from either government (public) management or from <br />private management (Figure 1.4), and is partly a con- <br />sequence of hydrologic conditions. As with physical <br />systems, responses of social syslems vary bolh spatial- <br />ly (from system to system) and temporally. Imple. <br />mentation of managemenl decisions changes the physi- <br />cal characteristics or parameters of Ihe watershed (the <br />physical and biological conditions) which are repre- <br />sented in the hydrclogic part of the model (Figure <br />1.4). Social induced changes in the watershed result <br />in response and are mathematically modeled by the <br />response functions of Ihe hydrologic system and are <br />fed back as input to the social system by altering ap. <br />propriate parameters in the sociological model. This <br />is done by equations which represent importanl ef- <br />fects of the respective systems upon each other. <br />Through a set of interactive linkages belween Ihe two <br />subsystems, a dynamic interaction process occurs <br />wilhin the system as a whole. <br /> <br />Figure 1.4 displays a simplistic summary of lhe <br />conceptual model, its component subsystems) and <br />their linkages. Each subsystem within the social com- <br />ponent of the overall model is very broad and includes <br />many related and interacting processes. Further de- <br />velopmenl of the conceptual model of the social com- <br />ponent and some corresponding mathematical relation- <br />ships are presented in subsequent chapters of lhis re- <br />port. <br /> <br />6 <br />
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