Laserfiche WebLink
<br />CHAPTER I <br /> <br />THE PROBLEM IN MODELING SOOAL AND PHYSICAL ELEMENTS <br /> <br />Nature of the Problem <br /> <br />Introduction <br /> <br />The purpose of this study is to creale a concep- <br />tual and mathematical sociological model of the social <br />processes in formulating a decision in response to ac~ <br />tual or potential physical conditions and to develop <br />the related model of the hydrologic system of Ihe area <br />requiring flood conlrol decisions. <br /> <br />The problem approached in this study is the de. <br />velopment of a method for analyzing and modeling <br />urban, metropolitan hydrologic problems through a <br />consideralion of social dimensions that are physically <br />related to Ihe flood control decision. This report iden. <br />tifies and describes relevant social variables to flood. <br />ing, develops methods for the assignment of mathemal- <br />ical values 10 these variables and places Ihem in a pro- <br />cess model for flood control decision-making. The <br />physical-hydrologic system of the related area is spec- <br />ified and elements in the hydrologic system are clari. <br />fied. <br /> <br />Urban flood control programs have been largely <br />planned to achieve a cosl effective physical solution <br />10 Ihe economic damage problem and have given lit. <br />tle consideration to the social problems to be expect- <br />ed in implemenling Ihe solution. This failure is largely <br />due 10 Ihe lack of a workable methodology for inte- <br />grating these physical and social dimensions. This <br />report seeks to develop a usable model by idenlifying <br />and derming social variables relating to flood control <br />implemenlation, so they can be quanlified and used <br />to develop a model of Ihe urban flood control decision- <br />making process. The goal is to provide planners, man- <br />agers, and the relevanl public a melhod of predicting <br />both physical and social consequences of alternative <br />solutions to urban flooding problems. The same de- <br />sign may also be adapled to considering land use man- <br />agement. water development, and similar resource de- <br />cisions. <br /> <br />Conceptualizing the real world system and iden- <br />tifying probable causal elements are the first steps of <br />process modeling. Many variables and relationships <br /> <br />""re examined in identifying the components or ele. <br />ments of Ihe syslem to be modeled and the basic reo <br />lationships among these elements. The various com. <br />ponents of the model ""re then calibrated and tesled <br />after suitable measurements were developed.! <br /> <br />Complexity of Flood Managemenl <br /> <br />Flood management in urban areas is complicated <br />by a number of social and physical factors which can <br />be identified as follows: <br /> <br />1. Natural runoff patterns are greatly altered by <br />urban developmenl. Quantification of the change reo <br />quires predicting what urban development will occur <br />and assessing its effects upon the runoff process. Al- <br />titudes, costs, and most olher social and physical fac. <br />tors also change wilh urban developmenl. and as are. <br />sult greatly complicale Ihe prediction process. <br /> <br />2. Piecemeal solutions to urban drainage prob- <br />lems often result when diverse interest groups cannot <br />agree to a general solution and available capital is <br />limited. <br /> <br />3. The difficulty in identifying beneficiaries <br />and allocaling costs in densely settled urban areas <br />makes il more difficult to get public support and fi- <br />nancial backing for urban flood control programs. <br /> <br />4. Conflicls ofinleresl often result in delay, com. <br />promise, or abandonment of remedial plans. Such con. <br />flicts may be the result if intensive interest or 100 lit. <br />tle interest from the parties involved, and may resoll <br />from lack of underslanding each others' problems or <br />viewpoints, or may represent opposing priorilies and <br />concerns. Such conflicls are further complicated by <br />political subdivisions which seldom coincide with <br />natural drainage areas. <br /> <br />5. Conflicting attitudes also produce difficul. <br />ties. People are often suspicious of the motives of <br />public officials. Landowners may resisl giving up pre. <br /> <br />Inris is a summarizing report including the results of <br />a three~phase study. <br /> <br />1 <br />