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<br />When large uncontrolled releases (spillway discharge elnd/or dam oVt~rtopping) <br />could occur, but are not imminent, the Colorado Dtsaster Emergency Service 1s to <br />be notified. This indicates that the ini'tial warnings should be issued before <br />pool levels reach the spillway crest. After it has been decided that d,am failure <br />or uncontrolled releases are imminent, the field office would notify the Colorado <br />Disaster Emergency Service and, time permitting, the Omaha District Emergency <br />Operations Manager. The Colorado Disaster Emergency Servic.e will in tu'm contact <br />FEMA, State and local law enforcement agencies, local civil defense directors, <br />and the National Weather Service. The contingency plan contains problem <br />reporting guidelines t flood warning times, potential flood outlines, and location <br />of available personnel and material resources. <br /> <br />According to county officials in Adams, Arapahoe, and Denver Counties, an <br /> <br /> <br />excellent warning and evacuation system would go into effect: immediat:ely after <br /> <br />receiving information of possible danger from the appropriate authorities. <br /> <br />POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE <br />In table II, PAR and LOL estimates are displayed, PAR values are those of <br />the probable daytime PAR. A range of LOL values are also presented in table 11, <br />The lower value in the range signifies the estimated LOL asswning that the <br />wc'irning and evacuation systems flow smoot:hly and that no maj or intE!rferences <br />affect the efficiency of the systems. The highest value in the range represents <br />the potential LOL that would occur if the '.arning and evacuat:ion systems failed <br />to function as efficiently as planned, There are uncertainties that could <br />severely fail the systems to a point where almost the enti"e PAR would be <br />affected. Only those persons fortunate enough to escape 1:he flood would survive. <br />Somewhere between the two ranges would be a LOL value where an uncf~rt:ainty may <br />affect or retard a portion of the warning and evacuation systems. Because of <br />many uncertain variables, it would be inappropriate to estimate one value and <br />designate that as the potential LOL, <br /> <br />The analysis takes varying reactions to the warning and eva.cuation systems <br /> <br /> <br />into account. It can be asswned that some individuals will begin to evacuate the <br /> <br /> <br />flood plain shortly after the warning is issued, It can also be assumed that <br /> <br />37 <br />