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<br />
<br />26
<br />
<br />ROGER A. PIELKE, JR.
<br />
<br />\ Prototype: the Scientific Assessment and Strategy Team (SAST)
<br />n the aftermath of the 1993 floods the While House established a Scientific As-
<br />essment and Strategy Team (SAST) of scientists from various agencies 'to provide
<br />cientific advice and assistance to officials responsible for making decisions with
<br />espect to flood recovery in the Upper Mississippi River Basin' (SAST, 1994,
<br />). xiii). One of the responsibiiities given to the SAST was to 'organize the infor~
<br />nation in existing databases to aid in the near-term and long-term decision-making
<br />)rocess' (SAST, 1994, p. 232). In its review of existing data on the floodplain the
<br />)AST found that 'some data vitally important to making informed management de-
<br />.:isions on the floodplain were not readily available, or were not uniformly acquired
<br />throughout the floodplains or river basin' (SAST. \995. p, 13),
<br />As a prototype, the SAST has begun to collect, document, and distribute flood-
<br />plain data for the Upper Mississippi River Basin. Some of the data collected by
<br />the Team includes: hydrology, land use/cover, soil, topography, vegetation, flood,
<br />agriculture, infrastructure, climate, biology/ecology, reservoir, etc, Data has been
<br />collected from federal, regional. state, and local organizations.* If the SAST is to
<br />contribute broadly to the U.S. flood problem by helping to fill the 'data gap' that
<br />it identified, then it must include societal data (e.g., demographics) in its mapping
<br />efforts. Further, its efforts must be evaluated from the standpoint of whether or
<br />not the information it f.:ullcf.:ls is usable by dcdsioll lll<lkcrs. If the Tcalll'~ work is
<br />judged by decision makers fO be useful, then the SAST is a model that oughlto be
<br />emulated for other U.S. river basins.
<br />
<br />2.6. DATA ON FLOOD CASUALTiES is A PROXY FOR FLOOD RISK
<br />
<br />Due to the lack of systematic data on the number of people at risk to floods, trends
<br />in flood casualties, for which relatively systematic data is available, are sometimes
<br />used as a proxy for trends in population at risk. An assumption underlying many
<br />such analyses is that a rise in ftood~related casualties is indicative of a rise in the
<br />number of people at risk to flood events. Unfortunately, at least three confounding
<br />factors limit the use of trends in flood casualties as a proxy for trends in the gross
<br />number of people who are vulnerable to floods.
<br />First, many flood-related deaths are concentrated in single extreme events, like
<br />a hurricane or a severe flash flood. Second, society has taken many steps to reduce
<br />its level of exposure, with mixed results. This means that a moving baseline of ex~
<br />posure underlies any record of flood-related casualties. Consequently, there may be
<br />a number of trends within a trend record of flood casualties (e.g:, level of exposure,
<br />success and failures of mitigation efforts, etc.). Finally, the data on flood casualties
<br />is generally not perceived to be accurate enough to lead to definitive causal conclu-
<br />sions (Richards, 1995, personal communication). The longest continuous record
<br />of ftood casualty data is that of the National Weather Service (1903-present).
<br />
<br />. Data and information on the onguing status of the SAST (im be acce~sed on the World Wide
<br />Web a\ http://edcwww.cr.usgs.gov/SAST.home.html.
<br />
<br />NINE FALLACIES OF FLOODS
<br />
<br />427
<br />
<br />Deaths
<br />600
<br />
<br />300
<br />
<br />
<br />500
<br />
<br />400
<br />
<br />200
<br />
<br />100
<br />
<br />o
<br />M ~ ~ ~ m M ~ _ ~
<br />~ ~ ~ ~ ; E ~ ~ ~ E ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ s m ~ ~
<br />Figure J. Flood fatalities in the Uniled Slates' 1903-1994 ~(b ~ - d-fi ~ ~ ..... ..... ....
<br />. , y year an ve-year average).
<br />
<br />However, there arc different :murces of data which have different nlJmbcrs (
<br />Red Cross data in FIFM!F (1992) and Wood (1994)). For these reasons, tre~d ~~~
<br />on tlood-~lated cas~altJes does not lend much insight into broader. questions of
<br />fact~rs which underhe trends on vulnerability to floods.
<br />F.I~ur~ I shows the data kept by the National Weather Service on flood-related
<br />~atahl1es tn the United States from 1903-1994.* The data shows a downward trend
<br />In ftood~relat.ed deaths since the early 1970s, but also an increased frequency of
<br />year~ wuh high de~ths. Figure 2 shows the trend of flood~related deaths over a
<br />~ovlOg ~5-year penod beginning with 1927 (Le., sum of 1903-1927) and ending
<br />10.1994 (I.e., sum of I 970-1994).t At this time scale, the more recent period con~
<br />tams more ~eaths (Wood (I ~93), using a different dataset finds a similar trend).
<br />However,. this data must be Viewed with caution, as it may be possible that part of
<br />the trend IS due to better accounting in the more recent years. Of the annual deaths
<br />~elated to floods, 80-90 pe~cent ar~ caused by flash floods and 40 percent of these
<br />are related to ~tream cros~mg or hIghway fatalities' (Zevin, ] 994, p. 1267).
<br />tn sum, available data Indicates that flood-related deaths have increased in re-
<br />cent d~cades. However, because of the nature of the data, little can be sajd with
<br />authonty ~bout what the trend of increased deaths means from the standpoint of
<br />people at rIsk to floods.
<br />
<br />
<br />* Data is kepi by 'water year' which runs from October I through Seplember 30 the ~ 1/ .
<br />year. For imlance, Water Year 1996 started an October t 1995 d ded 5 0 OWing
<br />t . _ . an en eplember 30. /996.
<br />A 25-year moving live rage IS used because it is the approximate period between th m t
<br />extreme flood events (as measured by economic ,mpacIS), e.g.. /903, 1927. /951. /972. 1993~ os
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