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E. SCENARIO - THE ONE HlINDRED ::~;:AR FLOOD Scenarios are effective devices for l.ncrec,s:i.ng awareness and e!ducating deci:5ion-makers of the possible consequences Df a d.1sast,ar. They should not be viewed as forecasts of the future. Thh se)enario will assIst decision-makers in developing a flood mitigation plan fOl' ManItou Springs. Public awareness and public education are n"",eled in order for the residents of Manitou Springs to have a real1stie perceptIon of' the hazaJ"ds which face them. Local author'i ties should implement a modest education progr'am concerning the flash flood potential. The scenario has three interrelated ObjectivE!:" firs'~, to simulate the magn:ltude, characteristics, and distribution of ,human casualti,es, stru<~tur'al damage, and disruption of social sy'SLE!CJJS likely to occur in Mani'cou Springs during a 100-year flash t'lood at its curTent level of preparedness; second, to show the capacity of e:dsting emergency procedur'es for reducing the flood's impact; and third, toO give! examples of poss:lblll flood mitigation techniques that, woul,d heighten awaremess, reduce stress, and reduce damage potential (Erickson: '1975, p. 7~5). The loss of life and property from floods l1a", becOll1e the number one natural hazard nationwide in recent years. In Colorado ,alone 275 communi Ues are subject to flooding. Thl.sre.""",sents approximately 150,Il00 people now living in Colorado's t'loodplalns. It has been nearly twenty years wi tnesslld in the Pikes Peak Region. nasl1 flood will strike today, this that it will, in fact, occur. sinCE' a d'=Y<l:::tating flood has been We Clan not pl'edict"heth!!r tIle next year" or y'eac's frOll1 now -- ~Ie only kno" The day of the scenario is typi cal for the Colorado Front Range. The weather forecast calls for a chance of af'te,rnoon thunderstorm11. !In accumulation of thunderheads over Mani tou Spr ings and th,= entIre Pikes Peak Region is not sufficient cause for alarm to the resIdents an e) tour:,sts of Mani tou Springs on this warm, summel" afternoon. At ~1:30 p.m., the sky has blackened and racJ,n :Is beginning to fall in the mountains. By 4:30 p.m., the storm has unleashed its full fury over the Fcuntain and Huxton Creek drainage basins. The heavy I"a:i.n causes many picnickers and I)ampers in higher elevations to seek shel tel" lOr head for' home, Onl~r light rain is falling in the lo.,er elevations causing l1t.tle concern._ By Il:45 p.m., the National Weather S!!rvieE .i.:,sues a ,general flash floo,j watch for El Paso County. The watch is tl"ansmitte,j by local radio and television stations about fifteen minutes later: I~rhe National Weather Service has Issued a f.Lash flood watch for vall,=ys and low-lying areas of' El Paso County until 7 :00 pm." -33-