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<br />2 <br /> <br />TECHNIQUES OF WATER-RESOURCES INVESTIGATIONS <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />frequencies indicates that the binomial distri- <br />bution is applicable to this problem. <br /> <br />Table 1.-Re:sults of dice-tossing <br />[AI.... Kendall ('''')J <br /> <br />experiment <br /> <br />No. of Fro- Relative <br />sixes quency frequency <br /> <br />Theoretical <br />relative <br />frequency <br /> <br />Oun..n.... 447 0, 109 0.112 <br />L'.Uh..n. 1,145 .280 .269 <br />2u.__.n.... 1, 181 ,288 .296 <br />3U.h.n.n. 796 ,194 .197 <br />4un..n.n. 380 ,093 .089 <br />5...n..u.n 115 ,028 .029 <br />6..n...un. 24 .006 ,007 <br />7 and over____ 8 .002 .001 <br />TotaLn..n 4,096 1.00 1.00 <br /> <br />The binomial distribution is a discrete dis- <br />tribution, that is, it can take values only at <br />specific points along a scale. In the dice-tossing <br />experiment, it is possible to obtain an integer <br />number of sixes only; there is no such thing as <br />5.5 or 3.2 sixes. <br />More commonly, a variable may take any <br />value along a scale. Such a variable and its <br />distribution are known as continuous. A <br />variable may be classified as continuous if it <br />can take any value along a scale even though <br />the limitations of measurement restrict the <br />observations to discrete values. This condition <br />exists with most natural phenomena. <br />To aid in understanding a distribution, con- <br />sider 1,000 tree-ring indices ranging in size from <br />2 to 240. If these are grouped by six-unit in- <br />crements of size, a histogram, or frequency <br />distribution, is obtained (fig. 1). The irregu- <br />larity of the profile of this distribution is due <br />to the small (in a statistical sense) number of <br />indices used in its preparation. The greater the <br />number used, the smoother would be the profile <br />of the frequency distribution. If the number of <br />observations approaches infinity and the size <br />increment approaches zero, the enveloping line <br />of the frequency distribution will approach a <br />smooth curve. Then if the ordinat6 values are <br />divided by a number such that the area under <br />the curve becomes one, the resulting curve is a <br />probability density curve, or probability dis- <br />tribution, such as figure 2. The process just <br />described requires the additional assumption <br />that the variable can take any value within the <br /> <br />range, that the variable is continuous, not <br />discrete. <br />80 <br /> <br />'" <br />'" <br />260 <br />D <br />~ <br />~40 <br />'" <br />'" <br />'" <br />" ~o <br />=> <br />z <br /> <br /> <br />o <br />o 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 <br />WIDTH INDEX <br /> <br />Figure 1.-Histogram, or frequency distribution, of 1,000 <br />tree-ring indices. <br /> <br />~l <br />I- <br />::; <br />a; <br />"" <br />'" <br />o <br />'" <br />Q. <br /> <br /> <br />o 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 <br />WIDTH INDEX <br /> <br />.1 <br /> <br />Figure: 2.~robability density curve of 1,000 tree-ring <br />indices. <br /> <br />A theoretical probability distribution de- <br />scribes the relation between size (or some other <br />other characteristic) and probability. For this <br />relation to be valid, the individuals must occur <br />randomly or be drawn randomly. The size of <br />any individual drawn should not depend on <br />the size of anyone previously drawn, Probabil. <br />ity, in the concept of frequency distributions, <br />is defined as relative frequency. The distribu. <br />tion of the number of sixes obtained from ree <br />peated tosses of 12 dice may be illustrated by <br />plotting the theoretical relative frequencies of <br />table 1. The relative frequencies of each of the <br />6.unit increments in figure 1 could likewise be <br />com'puted. In the first of these examples, a <br />probability is associated with each possible <br />outcome. In the second, a probability is associ. <br />ated with each increment of size; here the <br />probability is of obtaining not a specific indi- <br />vidual but any individual within the increment <br />of size. This interpretation is required for con- <br />tinuous distribution's because there is an infinite <br />number of possible values and, thus, no proba- <br />bility of occurrence of a particular individual. <br /> <br />. <br />