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<br />3.0 ENGINEERING METHODS <br /> <br />For the flooding sources studied in detail in the community, standard <br />hydrologic and hydraulic study methods were used to determine the flood <br />hazard data required for this study. Flood events of a magnitude which <br />are expected to be equaled or exceeded once on the average during any <br />10-, 50-, 100-, or 500-year period (recurrence interval) have been select- <br />ed as having special significance for flood plain management and for <br />flood insurance rates. These events, commonly termed the 10-, 50-, 100-, <br />and 500-year floods, have a 10, 2, 1, and 0.2 percent chance, respectively, <br />of being equaled or exceeded during any year. Although the recurrence <br />interval represents the long term average period between floods of a <br />specific magnitude, rare floods could occur at short intervals or even <br />within the same year. The risk of experiencing a rare flood increases <br />when periods greater than 1 year are considered. For example, the risk <br />of having a flood which equals or exceeds the 100-year flood (1 percent <br />chance of annual exceedence) in any 50-year period is approximately 40 <br />percent (4 in 10), and, for any 90-year period, the risk increases to <br />approximately 60 percent (6 in 10). The analyses reported herein reflect <br />flooding potentials based on conditions existing in the community at the <br />time of completion of this study. Maps and flood elevations will be <br />amended periodically to reflect future changes. <br /> <br />3.1 Hydrologic Analyses <br /> <br />Hydrologic analyses were carried out to establish the peak discharge- <br />frequency relationships for each flooding source studied in detail <br />affecting the community. <br /> <br />Peak discharges for the Rio Grande at Monte Vista were calculated <br />using the methodology for ungaged sites as described in the Manual <br />for Estimating Flood Characteristics of Natural Flow Streams in <br />Colorado (Reference 5). <br /> <br />Peak discharges for the Rio Grande at Del Norte were estimated <br />using a regional log-Pearson Type III analysis (Reference 6). <br /> <br />Peak discharges for the Rio Grande in the vicinity of the Town of <br />South Fork were developed from frequency analyses of peak discharges <br />for the Del Norte and Wason streamflow gages, which were active <br />for 62 and 40 years, respectively. <br /> <br />Peak discharges for the South Fork Rio Grande segment of this study <br />were based on the Town of South Fork stream gage No. 2195, with 53 <br />years of data. Additional data from several other stream gages in <br />the region were used for checking and correlation purposes. <br /> <br />Information from the U.S. Water Resources Council (Reference 6), <br />the Colorado Water Conservation Board (Reference 5), and the USGS <br />(Reference 4) were also used as major references. <br /> <br />7 <br />