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<br />Design Discharge <br /> <br />Understanding the new role of design discharge is one of the most <br />difficult tasks in making the transition from traditional design to <br />risk-analysis design. Traditionally, designers start with a semi- <br />arbitrary design discharge, select a bridge opening that will pass this <br />discharge, and add freeboard to computed water-surface elevations to <br />establish embankment and low bridge steel elevations. In risk analysis <br />the design discharge for any combination of embankment and bridge opening <br />size is the discharge whose elevation upstream of the encroachment is <br />equal to the minimum elevation of the encroachment. (In other words, it <br />is on the verge of overtopping the highway.) In risk analysis, there <br />is no one discharge that dictates the design, and the design discharge <br />is one of the results of the analysis. Since the risk analysis described <br />in this report is oriented towards traffic requirements, design discharge <br />that results from the risk analysis is an indicator for impending traffic <br />interruptions. <br /> <br />Designers maYr in fact, choose to make several preliminary traditional <br />sets of computations based on arbitrary discharges to determine some of <br />the trial bridge designs to be used in the risk analysis. Such computations <br />are, however, side issues to the risk analysis because trial bridge <br />designs could be selected by other methods. The final design discharge <br />that results from the risk analysis mayor may not correspond to any of <br />the discharges used in the preliminary computations. <br /> <br />Risk analysis can be applied to many aspects of design. This <br />report is oriented to determine embankment elevations and bridge lengths, <br />but the concepts are applicable to other components of design. Other <br />components of design that could be determined by risk analysis include <br />scour depths used to establish foundation elevations, clearance requirements <br />for low steel elevations on bridges, and protection measures. Each of <br />these components may be associated with design discharges that are quite <br />different from one another. For example, Laursen (1970) made a sensitivity <br />risk analysis to illustrate that scour estimates should be based on the <br />maximum flood that might occur because the results of losing a typical <br />bridge are so catastrophic. In other words, the design discharge associated <br />with scour computations may have a very low exceedance probability (say <br />.0001) in a given year; whereas, the design discharge associated with <br />establishing the embankment elevation and bridge length may have 'a <br />relatively higher exceedance probability (say .04) in a given year. <br /> <br />The Base Flood <br /> <br />The base flood (l-percent-chance flood) is referred to in Executive <br />Order 11988--Floodplain Management. Executive Order 11988 is intended <br />to avoid to the extent possible adverse impacts associated with occupancy <br />and modification"of flood plains. Flood plains, as a mimimum, include <br />areas subject to inundation by the base flood. <br /> <br />5 <br />