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<br />Should the region exp~rltnce only a moderate Increase in temperature (i.C) and a
<br />large: Increase in preclpltatlon (20%), one: would see roughly R 20 percent increase
<br />tn m~an llMual runoff, a 30 to 60 percent increase in storage and a 40 percent
<br />I lncre~. In power productJon,
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<br />"l1ormal1y, LAke Powell neyer falls b~low the level needed to generate hydr<Xllectricity, If
<br />aye rage runoff decreases by only 5 percent, hydroelectric generallon at Olen Canyon Dam
<br />\'';111 Itep 20 ~rc~nt of the time, If average nlnot! drops by 20 percent, then hydroelectricity
<br />itneration drops 60 percent. These drops would have dramatic effects across the
<br />Sputhwc~t," :ac~rdllig to Peter Oleick.
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<br />qelmrlu ot Water to the Celllrsl Arlzolla P~~t (CAP)
<br />J Under current conditlorl.S annual dellycries ot watet to the Central Arizona Proiect
<br /><tAP) are e~ected to equal or exceed scl1eduled dellvenes 6() percent of the time, while
<br />dFHvetles fall to their mInimum level 20 percent of the time. Normally, deliveries to CAP
<br />never fall below tbe mlnlmum of 451 thousand acre-feet per year, which is the level at
<br />which municipal and fndu,strial usage would be impaired,. Even slight decreases in t;unoff,
<br />hPwever, bave a major Impact on CAP water deliverIes, A permanent reduction In
<br />qotorado River average runoff of only oS percent would caUSe the frequency of deliveries
<br />t? CAP to ~1I substantially, 80 th~t full supplies are only dell,vero:d in 35 percent of the
<br />y~aN. Moreover, under thl~ scenaho, CAP receives only the rnlJlimufl1 dellyery 50 per,ent
<br />of the yeal1.
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<br />~llverles or Wllter Co Mexico ,
<br />I Unde: C\.lrrenl condldons, Mexico. receives IS 15 thousand Ac:c.feet pet year. If
<br />afernSi ann\!, III runoff drops 10 percent, the allocation model delivers to Mexico less than
<br />tl"cle full treaty amount in 5 ~rcent of the yean; under the .20 pment runoff scenar.o,
<br />~exlco cxperi~nce! Colorado 'River shottagt$ 3S percent of tbe time, A1thougn the dellvery
<br />d~Ul suggest that Mexico Is llffe~ted only in extreme (ase!, decreased flows in the lower
<br />b sin willlekd to poor quality ot water delivered to Mexico almost all the time, In fect,
<br />a I low~t basin users would suifer a signit'kant decline in water quality,
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<br />)., h. co,'" oJ tIl. fl'" "..n, "'''' '<mla<1 th, U,S. E","~,,,oJ 1'><>1""",, As<""
<br />p/lb{kat(OIU d/.ttrlbutlcn: Orden Call be ftlxed 10 (5H) 891-6685, Pholl~ ordm go to (SH)
<br />891-6561. TIl, report til18 Is: 'The Colorado River Basin ,md Climatic Change." The report
<br />IljllbCr /.t EP,A. I2JO.R.93.009, !
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