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DEC-03-1993 13:47 r~vn ~L1MWIC ~~W~~& , . FROM ~EPA REG ION 8 OEA L,llU . TO 9-86j&;174 1:..a3.1!'.1~:S7 P,003/006 climatic changes could malee tllings a whole lot WOrsl,' salel Oleick. , Under the present management I)'stem, even modest decre~es In runoff would lead to draStic decIJne. In the leveLt of the major reservoirs, big drops In the generation o! hydroelectricity, and cutbacks In water deliveries to somo us~rs. Even tOurism and recreation could bo affected: tho temperature Increases expected to occur with the greenhouse effect would have major adverso effectS on tho recreational ski lndustry in tht Rocky Mount4!ru because of a substantial shortening of the skI season, a clccllne lit snowpack, and a higher ratio of rain to snow. These same tempera.ture increases coul~ increase the risk of sprlns flooding, And rese,..,.olt levels could experience much larget fluctuations than at present, ' I , , The ,reates! problem lZ1 the basin Is 'With water quality, specIfically the &alt content! (or salinity) of the water, Even without climatic changes, sallnlty standards are violated: regularly, and even slight decreases in runoff would lead to much worse water quallty. Eveni if climatic changes were to .increase overall IT.Inoff, salinity standarels wlll be violated I regularly. ", ' '1 , I 711e 5tudy authors recommend that water managers begin to think about ways ofl reducing the risks of cihnatlc changes in the re~lon, jncrea~ini the flexibility ot water. 'I' delivery sy'tems and laws, and incorporatIng the Issue of the greenhouse effect into lonl- range plannins, In Summltr)' , , The hydrologic modeling results presented here suggest that large changes in [ streamflow may occur In the CplOflldo Rivet BasIn as a result of climatic changes. Using I sensitivity studies and projections from several general c:frcuhlllon models, this new study I suggests that runoff In the basin Is more likely to decrease than Inmlase. Results or the 1\ study sllgge~t that the impacts of tbese potential changes In streamnow would be felt throughout the basin 115 changes in water deliverIes. reservoIr storage, and hydroele~lricit)' \ prnduCllon. , , 'We've spent billions of dollars building dams and Institutions \0 control the natural I flows of the Colorado River to protect ourselves from natural droughts and floods. Now, i virtually every drop of river water is spoken for. As a result. any permanent reduction in ! average flow! is bound to adversely affect lonle or allllsers, and (lllr beslln(ormation says ; that some permanent reductions Ill'e likely," said Glcick. I I. This new stlldy suggests Ihat mese effects will be sIgnificant, CopinS with such I clltl'tate.lndu~ed changes, in the hydrologic regime wJl1 thereforo reqlllre flexlbllity, i innovation, and a degree of political consensus that may not exlst In today's system of water I ~anagement in the Southwest, I I "The Colorado Basin has seen natural drou~hl5 in the plUt as severe as some of the changes studied here, The dIfference is that climatic changes caused by the greenhouse effect would be permanent," said Peter Oleic:k. (ATTACHED TO THIS RELEASE /S "BACKGROUND TO THE STUDr AND A SUMMARY OF THE REPORT'S ''MAJOR FiNDINGS. ") , \ If,r " ltb\. f/ I' ,il \ 0.1;\' .~ _I' 1i;.J ly t" v ~{I Jlt:. '~j;