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<br />ASFPM Austin 2000 Conference <br />Abstracts & Biographies <br /> <br />Analysis of Flood Risk and Uncertainty at Beargrass Creek, Kentucky <br /> <br />By David R. Maidment, Center for Research in Water Resources, University of Texas at <br />Austin <br /> <br />During the 1990's the US Army Corps of Engineers developed a new procedure for quantifying <br />risk and uncertainty in flood damage reduction studies. Uncertainties in flood discharge, water <br />surface elevation and flood damage estimates are combined using a Monte Carlo procedure to <br />produce estimates of the annual probability of flooding that include both the natural variability of <br />flood magnitudes and the uncertainty in knowledge of model parameters. A case study of this <br />methodology is presented for a Corps of Engineers flood damage reduction project in Beargrass <br />Creek, Kentucky. The Corps method for quantifying uncertainty in water surface elevation for a <br />base flood may also contribute to better understanding of the uncertainties in flood plain <br />mapping. <br /> <br />Biography: <br /> <br />David R. Maidment <br />Mr. Maidment isthe Ashley H. Priddy Centennial Professor of Engineering and Director of the <br />Center for Research in Water Resources of the University of Texas at Austin, where he has been <br />on the faculty since 1981. He carried out the review of the Beargrass Creek project as a member <br />of a Committee of the National Research Council, which was requested by the Congress to <br />conduct a study of the Corps risk based analysis procedure. <br /> <br />Page 7 <br />