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FLOOD07861
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Last modified
1/29/2010 10:12:02 AM
Creation date
10/5/2006 3:15:28 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Floodplain Documents
County
Douglas
Arapahoe
Community
Greenwood Village, Aurora
Stream Name
Cherry Creek
Basin
South Platte
Title
Probable Maximum Precipitation Study for Cherry Creek Reservoir - Contracts
Date
3/5/1999
Prepared For
CWCB
Prepared By
CWCB
Floodplain - Doc Type
Project
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<br />Figure 2.10 in HMR 55A shows the surface maps associated with the Cherry Creek 1935. <br />The surface low formed over southwestem Utah and tracked over northern New Mexico during <br />the rainfall period. Moisture was advected from the south and east during this period. The A W A <br />team agrees with the NWS comment that the circulation from the low would be enhanced by <br />upslope, and the large scale moisture is from the southeast. The isohyetal map in Figure 2.11 <br />shows the locations of the rainfall from this scenario. This analysis based on rainfall data <br />indicates that the maximum rainfall fell south and east of the Cherry Creek basin, i.e. over the <br />southern slopes of the Palmer Divide and north of the Palmer Ridge in the Kiowa Creek basin, <br />i.e. east of the Kiowa Creek west basin boundary barrier and east of the Cherry Creek basin. <br />Both ofthese storms were extreme rainfall events and both produced rainfall centers <br />north of the Palmer Ridge. The 1965 storm produced rainfall centers north ofthe Palmer Divide <br />in the Plum Creek basin. The 1935 storm produced rainfall centers north of the Palmer Divide in <br />the Kiowa Creek basin. Although these observed rainfall centers occurred north of the Palmer <br />Divide, there were physical constraints that prohibited the observed rainfall centers from <br />occurring within the Cherry Creek basin boundaries. These same constraints prohibit <br />precipitation from "maximizing" north ofthe Palmer Divide over the Cherry Creek basin with <br />the positioning of the precipitation pattern presented in Figures 2 through 5 of the 1995 NWS <br />study violating the "physically possible" constraint of the definition ofPMP. <br /> <br />Comment 11 : <br />The application of rounding dew point values to the nearest half-degree is used to <br />increase the analysis precision to that warranted by standard mathematical averaging procedures. <br />An example of integer values averaged to produce a value to the nearest half integer is the <br />determination of the shape ratio used in HMR 52. Section 3.2 discusses storm isohyetal shapes <br />with an integer value ofthe storm shape ratio determined for each of 53 major storms, i.e. 53 <br />integer values. Based on a NWS analysis of these integer shape ratios, a ratio of2.5 was adopted <br />for use. <br />The A W A team recommendation is to use the nearest half-degree when dew points values <br />from various stations are used. The recommended procedure is the use of standard mathematical <br />rounding procedures. Use of these standard procedures will not bias the analysis either upward <br />or downward nor will it "shave half a degree off observed values" since it rounds up as well as <br />rounding downward. It is no more bias than rounding to the nearest degree. Half degree <br />rounding should not be used with observations from a single station but should be used with dew <br />point data from multiple stations. <br /> <br />Comment 12: <br />The MM5 modeling did not contribute to the study results and modeling results were <br />reported in Interim Report #2. Hence, the MM5 modeling results were not included in the final <br />report. The results reported in Interim Report #2 can be included as an appendix in the final <br />report if the NWS feels that it provides a significant contribution to the study results. <br />
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