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<br />55A, Figure 8.3 shows the transposition limits for the Gibson Dam storm which clearly do not <br />include the Cherry Creek basin location. HMR 44 also considered this storm for transpositioning <br />over the South Platte River basin. It was transposed to the western slopes of the South Platte <br />basin, well to the west of the Cherry Creek basin. HMR 55A, p. 43 in the discussion related to <br />the Big Elk Meadows storm, states that the rainfall centers were located along the first upslopes. <br />This storm characteristic is similar to Gibson Dam and hence this storm should only be <br />transpositionable over and west of the first upslopes. <br /> <br />Comment 4: <br />The NWS used both HMR 55A and HMR 52 in their 1995 study. A W A has verified that <br />HMR 55A within/without storm curves agree well with the A W A Colorado storm within/without <br />curves for HMR 55A non-orographic PMP for region C. However, the orographic PMP curve <br />for the Cherry Creek location is closer to the HMR 52 curve. Plotting ratios derived from Table <br />6 of the 1995 NWS study, the HMR 55A non-orographic ratio for the 24-hour time period for the <br />386 sq mi area of the Cherry Creek basin is 66%, only slightly higher than the A W A Colorado <br />storms curve. However, the ratio for the 1995 study results is 77% (386 sq mi value of21.1" and <br />an estimated 10 sq mi value of27.25" from Figure 4). Although the ratios from HMR 55A seem <br />to be consistent with Colorado storms, the use ofHMR 55A PMP values together with HMR 52 <br />produces significantly different results. <br /> <br />Comment 5: <br />The A W A team stated that the PMP estimates in HMR 55A for the Cherry Creek basin <br />location were not reproducible using the information provided in the NWS FOI response to the <br />CWCB request together with information contained in HMR 55A. <br /> <br />Comment 6: <br />While the A W A team does not endorse the NWS approach of using HMR 55A PMP <br />values with the HMR 52 procedure and then applying K-factors, the team did verify that the <br />NWS made no arithmetic errors in their computations. <br /> <br />Comment 7: <br />The NWS states that upslope conditions occurred in the May 30-31,1935 Cherry Creek <br />storm but does not identify the winds (direction and magnitude) nor the slopes within the basin <br />where the upslope conditions occurred. The A W A team would be pleased to acknowledge the <br />upslope conditions when the supporting data are provided. <br />The A W A team realizes that the NWS has not demonstrated that the use K - factors <br />represents physical storm processes, either by evaluating historic storms nor in potential PMP <br />storm scenarios. The National Research Council also recognizes that "physical justification for <br />these procedures has not been established clearly." (NRC, 1994, P 13). The A W A team believes <br />that the definition ofPMP (". ..physically possible. ..") requires demonstrating that K-factor <br />represent physical storm processes. Ifin fact the K-factors represent convergence or divergence, <br />or upslope or downslope resulting from topography, physical features can and should be <br />identified. The NWS states the K -factors can be used because they are based on ... "what has <br />been observed. The data themselves determine whether or not there is an orographic effect but <br />do not provide a reason for the effect or rely on analysis ofthe storm scenario." The A W A team <br />will accept this caveat if 1) some physical basis can be identified to support the K-factor <br />