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Last modified
1/29/2010 10:12:01 AM
Creation date
10/5/2006 3:07:54 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Floodplain Documents
County
Boulder
Larimer
Stream Name
Big Thompson
Basin
South Platte
Title
The Big Thompson Flash Flood: What If It Happened Again
Date
1/1/1996
Prepared For
CWCB
Prepared By
Henz Meteorological Services
Floodplain - Doc Type
Flood Documentation Report
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<br />f <br /> <br />Meteorological response <br /> <br />The Big Thompson was poorly forecast, detected and warned. In short, the meteorological <br />community was unprepared to provide needed information to the emergency response <br />community. In 1976 forecast techniques for predicting flash flooding were in the experimental <br />stages. No timely flash flood watches or warnings were issued to the public. Poor radar detection <br />of the thunderstorm system contributed to the under-prediction of the danger. Surface weather <br />observation systems could not measure the sub-cloud layer temperature, moisture and wind fields <br />needed to predict the pre-storm flash flood potential. No flood detection networks or effective <br />spotter networks were located in the canyon to provide verification of the flooding or intensity. <br />Communication iinks to the flooded location failed and redundancy in the system did not exist. <br /> <br />By comparison the modernization of the National Weather Service has resulted in vastly <br />improved radar-thunderstorm detection by the WSR-88D Doppler radar sites located in <br />Watkins, Pueblo and Grand Junction, Colorado and Cheyenne, Wyoming. These radars provide <br />redundant storm detection capability. Additionally, the radars possess the capability to <br />provide, 1-hour, 3-hour and storm total radar-rainfall estimates for use in assessing the <br />storm's flooding potential. <br /> <br />The Big Thompson flash flood triggered two decades of unprecedented research and operational <br />interest in the prediction of flash flooding. Effective research has resulted in the identification of <br />preferred weather patterns, atmospheric structures and types of thunderstorm systems which <br />produce flash floods. Private sector Initiatives in quantitative convective precipitation forecasting <br />have produced reliable methodologies for predicting the amount of rainfall produced by <br />thunderstorms hours before they form. In turn, the future appears to hold the promise of local and <br />regional scale atmospheric modeling of storm formation, movement and rainfall production with no <br />human intervention. <br /> <br />The implementation by local governments of ALERT flood detection networks and automated <br />meteorological observation networks or mesonets have provided the means to measure the pre- <br />storm and storm atmospheric rainfall potential and the amount of rainfall and runoff occurring in <br />flood-prone streams and basins. Many, but not all, flood warning systems are coordinated with a <br />well designed plan which is based on hydrological characteristics of the basins at risk and is <br />exercised annually. <br /> <br />Lesson learned: Flash floods must be predicted and flash flood watches issued BEFORE <br />the flash flood occurs in order for proactive emergency response to occur. Research has <br />provided reliable prediction solutions and technology the needed detection tools. <br /> <br />Flash flood detection. <br /> <br />Once a flash flood watch is issued and the thunderstorm system producing the rainfall detected by <br />radar, verification of the flooding event quantitatively is very desirable. Precious time was lost July <br />31, 1976 while forecasters tried in vain to verify that a flash flood was in progress to evoke an <br />effective warning. No timely warnings were issued. The implementation of countless flood <br />detection networks world-wide have proven that they can provide the verification response <br />needed if they are in place and working. <br /> <br />Flood detection networks are expensive and require a considerable investment in man-power and <br />dollars to implement and maintain. Flood detection networks are especially effective in slow <br />response basins ( > 3 hours response time) in evoking a warning response. However, in fast <br />response ( < 3 hours) basins in urban and mountainous areas, flood detection networks can not <br />provide adequate warning. Even in these areas they can provide a quantitative grasp on the <br />magnitude, duration and location of the flash fiood. In the absence of flood detection networks, <br /> <br />3 <br />
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