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<br />.......-,,_...., -.,.,.,..---,- ~..-- <br /> <br />...........--..--- <br /> <br />~~~......,"_.---, .... .-.-. - ----- ',' '""--'.' .... .~.-~-- <br /> <br />Harvard Gulch Historical Peak Flow Analysis <br /> <br />HISTORICAL DATA DATA ANALYSIS <br /> Frequency Factors <br />Year Peak Flow Ranked Flow Rank Exceedence Non-Exceedence Return Period Gumbel Exponential Normal <br />[1] q (cfs) [2] Kg [8] Ke[9] Kn [10] <br />1980 300 1,101 1 0.050 0.950 20.0 1.87 1.89 1.645 <br />1981 245 980 2 0.100 0.900 10.0 1.30 1.35 1.282 <br />1982 285 807 3 0.150 0.850 6.7 0.97 1.03 1.037 <br />1983 724 776 4 0.200 0.800 5.0 0.72 0.80 0.842 <br />1984 249 746 5 0.250 0.750 4.0 0.52 0.63 0.675 <br />1985 980 724 6 0.300 0.700 3.3 0.35 0.49 0.525 <br />1986 281 613 7 0.350 0.650 2.9 0.21 0.37 0.385 <br />1987 613 573 8 0.400 0.600 2.5 0.07 0.26 0.255 <br />1988 514 514 9 0.450 0.550 2.2 -0.05 0.17 0.126 <br />1989 181 491 10 0.500 0.500 2.0 -0.16 0.09 0.000 <br />1990 222 471 11 0.550 0.450 1.8 -0.27 0.02 -0.126 <br />1991 471 300 12 0.600 0.400 1.7 -0.38 -0.05 -0.255 <br />1992 807 285 13 0.650 0.350 1.5 -0.49 -0.11 -0.385 <br />1994 746 281 14 0.700 0.300 1.4 -0.59 -0.17 -0.525 <br />1995 491 257 15 0.750 0.250 1.3 -0.70 -0.23 -0.675 <br />1996 1,101 249 16 0.800 0.200 1.3 -0.82 -0.28 -0.842 <br />1997 776 245 17 0.850 0.150 1.2 -0.95 -0.32 -1.037 <br />1998 573 222 18 0.900 0.100 1.1 -1.10 -0.37 -1 .282 <br />1999 257 181 19 0.950 0.050 1.1 -1.31 -0.41 -1.645 <br /> SUM 9,816 100 3.14 3.14 2.33 <br /> 50 2.59 2.60 2.06 <br />Mean (a...) 517 Gumbel Model Prediction 25 2.04 2.06 1.75 <br />IStandard Deviation 278 Tr (years) [11] K [12] a (cfs) [13] 10 1.30 1.35 1.28 <br />ISkewness 2 -0.16 471 5 0.72 0.80 0.84 <br />Best-Fit Line 5 0.72 716 2 -0.16 0.09 0.00 <br /> <br />10 <br />25 <br />50 <br />100 <br /> <br />1.30 <br />2.04 <br />2.59 <br />3.14 <br /> <br />879 <br />1,084 <br />1,236 <br />1,387 <br /> <br />Application and Evaluation of CUHP <br /> <br />Page 51 of 52 <br />