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<br />- 17 - <br /> <br />FUTURE FLOODS <br /> <br />i;: <br /> <br />Floods of the same magnitude as those that have occurred <br />in the past can recur in the future, and even larger floods <br />are possible. The discussion of future floods in this report <br />is limited to those designated as the Intermediate Regional <br />and Standard Project Floods. The Standard Project Flood <br />would be larger and occur less frequently than the Intermed- <br />iate Regional Flood. The Standard Project Flood is a rare <br />event, but could reasonably be expected to occur in the <br />future. In addition to determining the Intermediate Regional <br />Flood and the Standard Project Flood, the 10 and 25-year <br />recurrence floods have also been identified at various des- <br />ign points along the Blue River into Dillon Reservoir. <br />Floods larger than the Standard Project Flood are also poss- <br />ible, but the probability of their occurrence becomes <br />increasingly remote. <br />Determination of the runoff for these floods was based <br />on hydrologic computation, which included analysis of avail- <br />able records of past floods and consideration of pertinent <br />meteorologic and physiographic conditions. Snowmelt floods <br />on the river and cloudburst floods in the tributary basins <br />create the more severe flood conditions in the study area. <br /> <br />FREQUENCY OF FLOODING <br /> <br />The Intermediate Regional Flood is one that could occur <br />about once in 100 years on the average, although it has a <br />one percent probability of being equalled or exceeded during <br />anyone year. The runoff from a Standard Project Flood is <br />that generated by a severe combination of meteorological <br />conditions reasonably characteristic of the hydrologic <br />region excluding extremely rare combinations. It is diffi- <br />cult to assign a frequency to the recurrence of a storm of <br />such magnitude but for purposes of this study can be <br />regarded as having recurrence of about once in 500 years. <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />Leonard Rice Consulting Water Engineers, Inc. <br />