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<br />The severity of a warning is composed in part by the described magnitude <br />of the threat, and the estimated time until onset. The warning at the <br />Aspenglen Campground, which has been described by some as too mild [7], <br />appears to have been influenced by (1) a belief that Horseshoe Park would <br />substantially slow the flood and therefore that the probability of Cascade <br />Dam failing was low, (2) an expectation that a ranger would remain at the <br />campground to update the warning as events progressed, and (3) a desire to <br />not alarm or inconvenience people unnecessarily. Only those closest to the <br />river were warned. Campers were in the process of shuttling their belongings <br />to their cars when Cascade Lake Dam failed. <br /> <br />Choosing the severity of the warning will always be a difficult decision, <br />particularly when special populations are involved that can only be evacuated <br />at high costs, e.g., hospital patients. But for the general public, for whom <br />evacuation costs are lower, it may be best to err generally on the side of <br />overstating a warning. As McLuckie states in his review of response to <br />warning, "The person issuing warnings need not worry about causing panic. A <br />more realistic problem about which you need to be concerned is whether your <br />warning is forceful enough to move people to action" [24]. <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />~'- <br /> <br />12 <br />