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<br />". <br /> <br />· The study incorrectly concluded that the ridge north of the Air Force <br />Academy known as the Palmer Divide would increase rainfall in the <br />Cherry Creek Basin, In fact, the opposite is true, Storms develop as <br />large wet air masses cross over the Palmer Divide, releasing great <br />amounts of moisture that never reach the Cherry Creek Basin. <br /> <br />· The National Weather Service used 1973 climate data to adjust <br />rainfall amounts over the Cherry Creek watershed. The data should <br />be updated by including the past 25 years of additional rainfall <br />information, <br /> <br />Dr. Edward Tomlinson, senior meteorologist with Applied Weather <br />Associates and a national expert on evaluating Probable Maximum <br />Precipitation, reviewed the National Weather Service study and concluded: <br />"The way this study was done is unlike anything ever done before. There are <br />significant inconsistencies and shortcomings." <br /> <br />u.s. Army Corps of Engineers Assertions <br />While the National Weather Service study is seriously flawed, the study <br />nevertheless confirms that Cherry Creek Dam will not fail solely as a result of <br />the projected Probable Maximum Precipitation, The Army Corps of <br />Engineers must add a series of internally-developed assumptions to the <br />analysis before it can conclude that the Cherry Creek Dam will fail. <br /> <br />The Corps has assumed that the Probable Maximum Flood is preceded five <br />days earlier by another flood about one-third the size of the Probable <br />Maximum Flood. This flood, which is approximately equivalent to a 500- <br />year flood, would be contained by Cherry Creek Reservoir. <br /> <br />However, according to the Corps' scenario, when the Probable Maximum <br />Flood occurs five days later, the water already in the reservoir from the earlier <br />flood would result in the dam's eventual failure. <br /> <br />But that's not all. The Corps also assumes that several hours of continuous <br />50-to-55-mph winds will cause 5-foot high waves, with water then <br />overtopping and eroding the earthen dam. A sustained wind that strong has <br />never been recorded at Stapleton International Airport, let alone a sustained <br />wind several hours in duration. <br /> <br />3 <br />