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.:. ,', NINE FALLACIES OF FLOODS * ., .... . . ROGER A, PIELKE, JR, Environmental and Socierallmpacfs Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research. t P.O, Box 3000, Boulder. Colorado, US,A, E-mail: rogerp@ucar.edu Abstract. A number of important misconceptions or fallacies stand in the way of a better under~ standing of the nation's flood problem. The fallacies are not universal, with many flood experts, decision makers. and sectors of the public escaping their seductive logic. BU! enough people do fall prey to these fallacies of floods so as to create obstacles to improved utilization of the lessons of experience. This paper uses three of these lessons to organize presentation of the nine fallacies: . We know the wrong things about the nature of the problem. Fallacy I: Flood frequencies are well understood. Fallacy 2: Damaging flooding in recent years is unprecedented because of 'global warming'. Fallacy 3: Levees 'prevent' damages. Fallacy 4: Flood forecasts are universally available. . We don't know enougb about why and with what intensity we should act. Fallacy 5; Societal vulnerability to floods is welt understood. Fallacy 6: Data on flood casualties is a proxy for flood risk. Fallacy 7: Data on flood damages is a proxy for flood risk. . We know enough about what might be done. Fallacy 8: Knowledge leads to action. Fallacy 9: The U.S. flood problem can be addressed without Federal leadership and support. The purpose of raising the fallacies in this paper is to contribute to a systematic definition of the nation's flood problem. 1. Introduction Flood policy in the United States is characterized by numerous assessments of so- ciety's response to particular events as well as periodic summaries of the common lessons distilled from those assessments,l A central theme running through this * The title and structure of this paper were inspired by M. H. Glantz' (1977). 'Nine fallacies of Natural Disaster: The Case of the Sahel', Clim. Change 1.69-84. t The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Founda- tion. t Examples of assessments published in the aftermath of the 1993 floods in the U.S. Midwest include Changnon (1996), the Corps of Engineers Floodplain Management Assessment (FPMA, 1995), the Galloway Report (lFMRC, 1994), and the Department of Commerce's Natural Disaster Survey Report (DOC, 1994). More general reviews include Committee on Public Works (1959), Unified Nalinnal Program reports (TFFCP. 1996: USWRC, 1976, 1979; ITFFM. 1986; FIFMTF. 1994), and the comprehensive Floodplain Management Assessment (FIFMTF, 1992). :fF Z. J ....4 Climatic Change 42:A413-438, 1999. . '111' (r') 1999 KI,Il\'('r .'\("(/(f('~'li(. {1/rhfil-!"".' f','i,,',' 1 . , ,I. d. i Ii I: , I ;, !I --