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<br />precipitation amounts of at least 15 inches above 10,000 feet (see Hansen et al., 1988). <br />Secondly, the analysis of streamflow by Jarrett and Costa (1982) shows the peak <br />streamflow on many streams in the Front Range above approximately 7,500 feet are due <br />to snowmelt and not extreme rainfall events. The paleohydrologic work by Jarrett and <br />Costa (1988) to estimate past floods would suggest that the stream channels above 7,500 <br />feet have not experienced large rain produced floods in the past 10,000 years. These two <br />perspectives are not necessarily in conflict, but they do raise a significant scientific <br />question of what level of probability ofa storm event should dams be expected to provide <br />protection from floods. If the numerical models could simulate large rainstorms at higher <br />elevations, the controlling physical processes could be identified and used to imp:rovl~ our <br />understanding of this phenomena. <br /> <br />The format of the workshop was to start with a series of presentations by individuals with <br />experience developing and/or using large modds. They included Bill Cotton (CSU), Terry <br />Clark (NCAR), John Snook (NOAA) and Hany Orville (SDSMT). Lou Schreiner also <br />gave a brief discussion of the plans of the USBR to IIse models to contribute t.o the PMP <br />work. <br /> <br />b. Presentation summary <br /> <br />Bill Cotton's presentation included a series of experiences with the CSU-RAMS model <br />and some speculation of the use of RAMS to simulate storms at higher elevations with <br />heavy rain. He indicated that a spatial resolution of 1-2 kin would be required to simulate <br />large storms. He anticipated the environment of the large storms includes: <br /> <br />. synoptic ridge <br />. shortwave trough <br />. low level jet <br />. stationary front <br />. weak winds aloft <br />. weak vertical shear <br /> <br />Initialization of the model is very important and information of soil moisture and <br />vegetation is really needed. He hypothesized tha.t dry soil at higher elevations could lead <br />to stronger upslope winds in developing convection. <br /> <br />In regards to the idea that there might be an elevation limitation on heavy rain, h,~ thought <br />high mixing ratio air might be used by storms before it gets to high elevations and that <br />much of the high elevation precipitation could fall as hail. He talked about the complexity <br />of the cloud microphysics and indicated that the newest version was not running in the <br />model at this time. <br /> <br />Terry Clark discussed the use of the Clark model in several areas which included wind <br />storms, forest fires, and a project specifically related to precipitation in Arizona for both <br />summer flash floods and winter precipitation. He showed comparisons of model <br />simulations with observations of precipitation. Results of the comparisons indicated the <br /> <br />20 <br />