FLOOD06680

• County: Statewide
• Basin: Statewide
• Title: Flood Damage in the United States, 1926-2000
• Date: 6/1/2000
• Prepared By: NOAA
• Floodplain - Doc Type: Flood Documentation Report

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1993: Unusually heavy rainfall from May through August over most of the state produced
widespread flooding that resulted in a presidential disaster declaration for 57 of
Minnesota's 87 counties, and an agricultural disaster declaration for an additional eight
counties. The NWS estimated damage of $1.0 billion (in 1995 dollars).

1997: Heavy snow and ice followed by spring rains and rapid snowmelt led to severe flooding in
April and May. Damage was extensive in East Grand Forks and many smaller
communities. A presidential disaster declaration was issued covering 58 Minnesota
counties. Additional storms and flooding in June and July led to another disaster
declaration for 7 metropolitan area counties. The NWS estimated damage of $715
million (in 1995 dollars).

In which year was the damage more severe? The answer to this question depends upon
how "severe" is defined. The NWS estimates suggest that damage was substantially greater in
1993. However, a report issued by the Minnesota Department of Public Safety leads to the
opposite conclusion. Table 7 -1 shows actual costs reported in A Decade of Minnesota Disasters
(MDPS 2000). (We have excluded costs that are not associated with direct damage, such as
temporary housing, hazard mitigation, and economic injury due to loss of business.) FEMA
assistance programs, insurance, and SBA loans all indicate that non-agricultural losses were
much higher in 1997 than in 1993. A representative of Minnesota's Division of Emergency
Management reinforced this conclusion, telling us that in 1997 entire Minnesota towns were
flooded, while in 1993 the main effects of the great Midwest flood occurred in states farther
south (Sherrill Neudahl, personal communication, 10/5100).

Agricultural damage was greater in 1993 than in 1997, however. The value of Minnesota's
final crop output in 1993 was 44% less than the average of the previous three years (USDA
2000). In contrast, final crop output in 1997 was equal to the average for the previous three
years, suggesting that the floods did little to diminish agricultural productivity that year. Twice
as much money was awarded in FSA loans to Minnesota farmers in 1993 as in 1997 (Table 7-1).

Lumping agricultural and non-agricultural losses into a single damage estimate is
problematic. Enormous discrepancies are found in historical estimates of agricultural damage
because of different perspectives on and methodologies for the measurement of losses. For
example, one official publication estimated that Minnesota's total damage in the 1993 flood
exceeded $1.7 billion (MDPS 1994) - substantially more than the NWS estimate. Of that, $1.5
billion was attributed to crop "losses" based on the amount that crop production fell short of the
previous 4-year average. This is a loss in expectation, perhaps, but not a loss of actual
investment.

This comparison does not lead us to challenge the NWS estimates for these two flood
years. Rather, it provides another reason for caution in interpreting and comparing damage
estimates. Given the error magnitudes found in Section 5, the difference of 40% in estimates for
the two years is not large enough to say with confidence that one year's economic damage was
worse than the other's, only that there was major damage in both years. Most Minnesotans would

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