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<br />3. DEVELOPMENT OF THE DATA SETS
<br />
<br />The national data obtained from NWS consisted of annual total damage estimates for the
<br />D,S" including three territories: Puerto Rico (since 1975), the Virgin Islands (since mid-1980s),
<br />and Guam (since 1994), The state data contained annual damage estimates for each state and, in
<br />recent years, the three territories, In the national data, we subtracted estimates for the three
<br />territories from the U,S, totals to create a more uniform time series representing only the 50
<br />states.
<br />
<br />NWS estimates were spot-checked against those from other agencies, Estimates that
<br />appeared to be extremely large or small compared to published accounts of events were
<br />examined especially closely, In inc1ividual events that received follow-up study by the DSACE,
<br />more accurate estimates were sometimes available, However, except during 1976-1982, there
<br />exists no compelling reason to change the NWS estimates or defer to another agency's estimates,
<br />Section 5 provides a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the estimates and the implications
<br />for their effective use,
<br />
<br />With a few important exceptions, the estimates presented as a result of this project have
<br />their origins in published NWS data, Obvious clerical errors have been corrected (see
<br />Section 4),
<br />
<br />A. Resolving the Data Gap, 1976-1982
<br />To compile a complete time series of annual estimates required finc1ing additional flood
<br />damage estimates for the years 1976-1982, As explained in Section 2, NWS ceased publication
<br />of annual flood damage summaries after 1975, Publication of comparable damage estimates c1id
<br />not resume until 1983, when USACE reports made damage estimates available again at the state
<br />and national levels, but not at the river basin level.
<br />
<br />To make the state and national data sets as complete as possible, we focused on obtaining
<br />and evaluating estimates for 1976 through 1982, The NWS website (NWS-HIC 2001) included
<br />previously unpublished national flood damage estimates for 1976-1982, and an NWS
<br />spreadsheet included unpublished state estimates for that period, However, the national
<br />estimates and the state total estimates c1iffered by large margins, An old, undocumented NWS
<br />computer printout tallied inc1ividual floods, by state, in the years 1976-1988, but we found it to
<br />be filled with errors and inconsistencies,
<br />
<br />Despite a curtailment of effort, the NWS continued to compile some damage estimates
<br />during 1976-1979, which served as a starting point for our reconstruction attempts, We were
<br />able to develop estimates for 1976-1979 based on information in the NWS files and reports from
<br />other sources, as described in Appenc1ix A,
<br />
<br />Although we tried to reconstruct estimates for 1980-1982, there were not enough sources
<br />of information, either from NWS or other agency publications, to provide estimates for those
<br />years comparable to the data in the overall data set. Furthermore, there were some large
<br />disparities between estimates found in the NWS-HIC archives for the period 1980-1982 and
<br />damage estimates provided by states, leading us to conclude that some of the damage estimates
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