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<br />Crop damage estimates are obtained from U,S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) agents
<br />or from monthly "flash" reports that are compiled from claims that farmers rnake to USDA,
<br />Damage is calculated based on expected return on the crop: Average yield is multiplied by the
<br />number of acres damaged, the estimated percentage of the crop lost, and the expected sale price
<br />based on the market at the time of event (John Ogren, NWS, pers, comm" 8/29/01). Unlike
<br />property damage, the estimates of crop damage rely on self-reporting by farmers and permit
<br />reports to be submitted up to 60 days after the event. After a major flood event market prices
<br />often rise so that, by the time of filing, the market price claimed may be higher than the market
<br />price at the time of the flood event.
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<br />through a variety of contacts in their area such as emergency managers, insurance agents, and
<br />local officials. Many offices also subscribe to a newspaper service, which allows the staff to
<br />search for any story having to do with weather.
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<br />Newspapers and emergency managers are the best sources of information, according to a
<br />WCM in Boulder, Colorado (Robert Glancy, NWS, pers, comm" 8/24/01). If a flood has
<br />received a presidential disaster declaration, information can be obtained from damage
<br />assessments by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) storm survey teams that travel
<br />to the flood scene. Estimates of damage to insured property can be obtained from local
<br />insurance agents, However, the estimation process is not performed with rigorous attention to
<br />accuracy, One WCM described using the following procedure: Since the largest insurer handles
<br />about 25% of the insured property in the local area, an estimate of insured losses is obtained by
<br />getting a cost estimate from that insurer and multiplying by four (John Ogren, NWS, pers,
<br />Comm"8/29/01), A full survey of each damaged structure does not take place; instead, in many
<br />cases a simplifying formula is used to estimate damage (John Ogren, pers, comm" 8/29/01),
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<br />Storm Data's compilers vary widely in terms of training and expertise (Frank Richards,
<br />pers, comm" 6/27/01), NWS provides operations manuals to its staff, which explain how to
<br />collect and report flood damage, However, one compiler reports that he received most of his
<br />training from previous employees who had experience with Storm Data compilation, He was
<br />referred to NWS manuals after he had been doing the job for some time (Frank Cooper, pers,
<br />comm, 8/27/01),
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<br />Instructions for estimating damage have changed in successive versions of the NWS
<br />Operations Manual, For example, the 1985 revised manual required that damage estimates be
<br />entered by checking off damage categories (though actual dollar amounts could be entered in the
<br />narrative section of a report), and specified that damage below $5,000 could be omitted or
<br />entered as zero, Furthermore, the manual stated, "Damage resulting from flash floods and floods
<br />should be reported only if it is the result of local rainfall but not if it is the result of heavy rain
<br />upstream, i,e" that which fell more than 24 to 48 hours in advance of the flooding" (NWS 1985,
<br />chap, 42, p, 14), In other words, NWS wished to collect damage estimates only for floods that
<br />were the result of localized precipitation, It is uncertain how widely this rule was followed, but
<br />it was eliminated less than a decade later. In the 1994 revised manual, instructions simply state,
<br />"Damage resulting frorn flash floods and floods should be reported by each office in whose
<br />county area of forecast responsibility the damage was reported," The 1994 revision also
<br />eliminated the use of damage categories, specifying that damage estimates should be entered as
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