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<br />alternative systems comprising the common components from both <br />systems (all of the first added) and logical combinations of those <br />additional components included in the 'last added' formulation. <br />The strategy described as "reasoned thought" could make a meaningful <br />contribution at this stage. <br /> <br />A reasonable working strategy, as a framework that need not <br />be rigid, would be to apply the first and last added strategies <br />through sufficient stages to identify and screen out those compo- <br />nents that are Obviously good and ObViously inferior and zero in on <br />the system to be selected using a reasoned thought approach. <br /> <br />SENSITIVITY ANAlYSIS <br /> <br />There will be varying de~rees of uncertainty in the information <br />used in system formulation. The hydrology will be better defined <br />near gaging stations than it is in remote areas, and certain <br />potential reservoirs will have been more thoroughly investigated <br />than others. In addition the accuracy of economic data, both costs <br />and value, existing or projected, is generally lower than the more <br />physically based data. Also, conditions Change over time and thus <br />the data must be continuously updated at each decision point. The <br />practical accon~odation of information uncertainty is by limited <br />sensitivity analysis and continuing reappraisal as each component <br />of a system is studied for implementation. <br /> <br />27 <br />