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<br />techniques and are based upon the concept of examining in detail <br />the performance of a selected few alternative systems. The perform- <br />ance is assumed to be evaluated generally by traditional methods <br />that make use of HEC-5C. <br /> <br />a. Reasoned Thought Strategy. - This strategy is predicated <br />upon the idea that it is possible to 'reason' out by judgement and <br />other criteria, reasonable alternative systems. The strategy con- <br />sists of devising through rational thought, sampling, public <br />opinion, literature search, brainstorming, etc., a manageable <br />number of system alternatives that will be evaluated. No more than <br />15 to 20 alternative systems could be evaluated by detailed simulation <br />in a practical sense. Next, the total performance of each system in <br />terms of economic (net benefit) and performance criteria is evaluated <br />by a system simulation. A system (or systems if more than one have <br />very similar performance) is selected that maximizes the contribution <br />towards the formulation objectives (those that exhibit the highest <br />value of net benefits while satisfying the minimum performance criteria). <br />To confirm the incremental justification of each component, the con- <br />tribution of each system component in the "last added" position is <br />evaluated. The last added value is the difference between the value <br />(net benefits) of the system with all components in operation and <br />the value (net benefits) of the system with the "last added" component <br />removed. If each component is incrementally justified, as indicated <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />20 <br />