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<br />Evaluation of the program's performance for the Arkansas River sediment <br />study was based on both qualitative and quantitative measures. Qualitatively, <br />it was known that the river had been generally aggrading over the past several <br />decades and that deposits had been developing at the mouths of major <br />tributaries due to decreased main stem transport capacity resulting from the <br />irrigation diversions. These observed trends were all adequately reproduced <br />by the model without adjustment of any of the parameters. <br /> <br />The observed drift of the rating curve for the La Junta gage (#07123000) <br />was used for quantitative calibration. This measure was selected because it <br />is located in the area of interest and integrates, to a certain extent, the <br />behavior of a stream reach rather than just a single point or cross section. <br />Rating curves for the La Junta gage were obtained from the state Engineer" s <br />Office , Denver, Colorado (personal communication, Mr. Bud Walters) for the <br />period from 1950 to 1982. These rating curves, plotted at approximately ten <br />year intervals demonstrate, quantitatively, the aggradation taking place <br />within the study area (see Fig. 4.10). It appears that the river has aggraded <br />approximately two feet during this time period. Changes in channel roughness <br />could also effect the rating curve; however, the degree of roughness change <br />necessary to duplicate this magnitude of gage shift is physically unrealistic <br />(particularly at lower discharges). <br /> <br />The program was calibrated to reproduce the 1950 rating curve by adjusting <br />Manning n-values (Note: the cross section data in the La Junta sub-reach was <br />based on 1953 surveys.). This required use of an n value of 0.025 to 0.035 <br />for the channel and 0.045 to 0.050 for the overbanks. The calculated initial <br />condition rating cut'Ve is also shown on Fig. 4.10 <br /> <br />Movable boundary simulations were then made using the flow records (see <br />Sec. 4.3) developed for the 1951-1979 period. Rating cut'Ves at section 1198.1 <br />(location of the gage) were calculated by HEC-6 at approximately ten year <br />periods and compared with the measured ratings. Initial calibration t'uns <br />indicated too little deposition. This was corrected by adjusting (decreasing) <br />the movable bed width. Final calibration results are also depicted on Fig. <br />4.10. <br /> <br />4.5 Simulation Results <br /> <br />The results of numerical simulations of 100 years of continuous flows <br />using HEC-6 are presented herein in three formats: <br /> <br />1) Graphs of calculated stream bed thalweg profiles at time zero, after <br />33 years. 67 years and 100 years. (Figures 4.11, 4.13-4.16, 4.21, <br />4.23) <br /> <br />2) Graphs of the calculated change in bed elevation at a cross section <br />versus time. (Figures 4.12, 4.17-4.20, 4.22, 4.24) <br /> <br />3) Table of the average change in bed elevation at the end of the <br />100-year period for the project sub reach (approximate river mile <br />1196.6 to 1200.5). (Table 4.4) <br /> <br />These displays were selected as those most pertinent to the evaluation of <br />the long-term performance of various flood control projects with respect to <br />the transport/deposition of sediment. <br /> <br />27 <br />