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Last modified
1/25/2010 7:08:32 PM
Creation date
10/5/2006 2:10:03 AM
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Statewide
Title
High Elevation Extreme Local Storms in Colorado Implications for High Elevation Site Specific PMP: Update 2000
Date
1/1/2000
Prepared For
State of Colorado
Prepared By
HDR Engineering, Inc.
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />All the west of the CD storms occurred during July or August except for the Rifle Creek storm of <br />May 1993 and Muddy Creek storm of June 1994. Monsoon moisture and disturbances played a <br />major role in the formation of each of these storm events. Surface gust fronts and thunderstorm <br />outflow boundaries or gust fronts were the major contributing sub-cloud layer forcing features, <br />While it was not listed, differential heating of higher topography played a pivotal role in storm <br />initiation for each of the events. It is interesting to note that while the cloud shear values were <br />quite low, in general, the cloud layer winds were stronger than the low level winds in all but two <br />events, Strong low-level winds appear to be missing from CD-West storms and this factor <br />may limit the availability, duration and amount of rainfall. <br /> <br />In general the PWI values were around an inch after being corrected for elevation, The <br />exceptions were the recent Saguache and Dallas Creek storms that averaged about 1.20 inches <br />or about 20 per cent moisture than the other events. Surface dew points averaged about 53F <br />while surface temperatures were in the 70s. These results are consistent with the relatively high <br />elevation of the events above 8,000 feet. <br /> <br />While deep monsoon moisture is present for each event, it is not properly reflected in the Surface <br />-500mb PWI. Since the surface used for the mountain PWI is 8,000 feet, and not 5,000 feet or <br />lower, it is roughly 20-40 percent less than either the east of the CD PWI or a sea level PWI by <br />default of its elevation. Clearly, 8,000 feet of rock cannot be saturated by atmospheric water and <br />this fact represents a limiting factor in rainfall production, <br /> <br />If the PWl's in Table 2 are adjusted to a standard 5,000-foot elevation, the values average about <br />1.24 inches or about the same as those presented in Table 1. If the PWl's associated with the <br />Saguache and Dallas Creek storms are adjusted to 5,000 feet, the storm PWI values increase to <br />1.44 inches or the wettest atmospheric PWI's "observed" with any of the extreme precipitation <br />events listed in Table 1 or 2. This exercise of elevation adjustment provides an objective means <br />of comparing PWI for the storms. The comparison suggests that the Dallas Creek and Saguache <br />Creek storms were truly significant precipitation events. <br /> <br />Finally, these factors appear to be reflected in the average storm rainfall of 4.42 inches for <br />CD-West storms. While estimated storm total rainfall of the Opal storm of 1990 and the <br />Saguache storm of 1999 are about 7,00 inches based on unofficial point amounts, reliable <br />observations and storm re-constructions do not support these high values for areas of greater <br />than 1 square mile within the storms. It appears that CD-West storms are less proficient <br />rainfall producers than the CD-East storms. If this observation is correct, the question can be <br />asked: why? Some quantifiable answers are offered in the final section of this paper that could <br />have a profound impact on site.specific PMP calculations made in mountainous areas of Colorado <br />and the adjacent foothills/plains interface. <br /> <br />4. Significant differences in the CO-West and the CD-East storms <br /> <br />This study has focused on the 16 key extreme precipitation events that have been identified by the <br />Colorado Extreme Precipitation Committee for evaluation by all practitioners producing a site <br />specific PMP along and west of 105 degrees west in Colorado. A detailed summary of the <br />atmospheric structure has been created for each of these events using the data sets collected for <br />the Colorado Extreme Precipitation study. <br /> <br />Significant quantifiable differences appear to exist in the atmospheric structure for storms <br />observed east and west of Colorado's Continental Divide. These differences provide a significant <br />opportunity to provide physical options to reduce PMP rainfalls west of the Continental Divide in <br />Colorado. Table 3 summarizes the key differences observed in the storms from Tables 1 and 2. <br /> <br />4 <br />
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