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Last modified
1/25/2010 7:08:32 PM
Creation date
10/5/2006 2:10:03 AM
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Title
High Elevation Extreme Local Storms in Colorado Implications for High Elevation Site Specific PMP: Update 2000
Date
1/1/2000
Prepared For
State of Colorado
Prepared By
HDR Engineering, Inc.
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />A summary of the key meteorological stability, moisture and dynamic characteristics of each flash <br />flooding event was prepared. Traditionally, meteorologists investigate the vertical temperature <br />and moisture structure of the atmosphere near the event to identify the stability of the atmosphere <br />and infer cloud structure. The surface to 500mb (-20,OOOft) temperatures and dew points and <br />Precipitable Water Index (PWI) form the traditional database for evaluating storms. The surface <br />dew points and PWI are used in standard Site Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) <br />studies for dam sizing and re-habilitation studies, <br /> <br />Other important atmospheric factors that have not been incorporated into the PMP methodology <br />are the cloud layer shear, sub-cloud layer and cloud layer wind speed and direction and the depth <br />of the warm layer in the updraft, Each of these factors can be used to evaluate the precipitation <br />efficiency and updraft structure of the heavy rain producing storm clouds. The sub-cloud and <br />cloud layer forcing features provide insight into the processes that maintain the flow of moisture <br />into the storm updraft the volume and duration of storm rainfall. The depth of the storm updraft <br />warmer than OC has been reiated to the occurrence of significant flash flooding storms and the <br />efficiency of the storm updraft at producing heavy rainfall. <br /> <br />The key characteristics of storms located east and west of the Colorado Continental Divide that <br />were compared are listed below: <br /> <br />. Depth of the cloud updraft warm layer which is warmer than 0 C. This factor is related <br />to the precipitation efficiency of the storm cloud and is used operationally to predict <br />storm rainfall in flash flood program. It may prove to be an important addition to PMP <br />evaluations in the near future. <br /> <br />. Precipitable Water Index (PWI) from surface to 500 mb measures the amount of <br />moisture available in the atmosphere to be processed by the storm. Traditional site- <br />specific PMP calculations assume the atmosphere is totally saturated with adjustments <br />for elevation and surface dew points maximized. <br /> <br />. 700 mb and 500 mb temperature and dew points and wind fields are directly related to <br />the atmospheric stability influencing the strength of the storm clouds updraft. <br />Additionally these fields are used to identify the presence of cloud layer disturbances <br />capable of influencing storm intensity, duration and organization. These factors have <br />not been added to the PMP equation pending the use of atmospheric models. <br /> <br />. Cloud layer wind shear are related to precipitation efficiency of the clouds, and <br /> <br />. Surface temperature and dew points that are used in traditional PMP calculations. <br />Storm transposition and maximization for site-specific PMP calculations are very <br />sensitive to surface dew points used in the calculations. <br /> <br />Each of these factors was evaluated and then composited for comparison purposes. The next <br />two sections of this paper will describe the events that occurred east and west of the Colorado <br />Continental Divide and the final section will present a direct comparison of the storms. Finally <br />some comments will be made of the relative importance of the findings to site-specific PMP <br />preparation in Colorado and in other areas of the mountainous Western states. <br /> <br />2. Flash flooding events east of the Continental Divide (CD-East storms) <br /> <br />The Plurn Creek storm of June 16, 1965, the Big Thompson storm of July 31, 1976 and the Frijole <br />Creek storm of July 3,1981 are prime examples of the flash flooding events of significance that <br />have occurred east of the Continental Divide along and in the foothills/plains interface. These <br />storms have all occurred at elevations above 5,000 feet with direct topographic influences. Table <br />1 shows a detailed summary of each storm and the atmospheric structure attending it. <br /> <br />2 <br />
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