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<br />r <br /> <br />L <br /> <br />t <br />I! <br />! ;. <br />, <br /> <br />A Short-Term Thunderstorm QPF Prediction Strategy <br />with Potential National Application <br /> <br />RECEIVED <br />APR 111 1998 <br /> <br />John F. Henz <br /> <br />Ii <br />i <br />I: <br /> <br />Colore-dO V4~;<:l::~ <br />Cons~;r\i~ ,ion Gn., d <br /> <br />Henz Meteorological Services <br />2480 W. 26th Avenue, Suite 310B <br />Denver, CO 80211 <br />Phone: 303.458.1464 <br />Fax: 303.458,5309 <br />E-mail: henz@hmsweather.com <br /> <br />, . <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />U <br />, <br />;1 <br />. f <br />! <br />" <br />, <br />! <br />i <br /> <br />Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is one of the vexing prediction <br />challenges facing the operational meteorologist. The problem becomes <br />especially challenging for short duration/high intensity thunderstorms systems <br />capable of producing either flash flooding or urban flooding, The threat to life <br />and property has recently been accentuated by fatal flash flooding events near <br />San Antonio, Texas and in Central Iowa. <br /> <br />I; <br />I ~; <br />, <br />, <br />~. <br />~ <br />t <br />I' <br />r <br />, <br />i' <br />Ii. <br />t; <br /> <br />Forecasters will have to wait for the results of the research initiatives being <br />directed to the QPF problem within the U.S. Weather Research Program to <br />obtain a continuing numerical predictive solution to the problem. This paper <br />describes a short term (0-5 years) strategy which could be employed by the <br />operational community while waiting for the long term solution, <br /> <br />The strategy is based on successes achieved by the cooperation of the local and <br />federal government sectors and the private sector in two operational QPF <br />programs in Colorado and Arizona, The strategy is dependant on three basic <br />contributions by the three sectors: <br /> <br />, ' <br />;, <br />, <br />~ <br />l <br />I I; <br />~ <br />~ <br />f <br />P <br />I, <br />~ <br />f <br />t <br />r <br />:: <br />, <br />f <br />I, <br />, <br />I <br /> <br />. First, the local government sector must take the initiative to fund and maintain <br />local flood detection networks and related automated meteorological <br />observation networks or mesonets, The mesonets are crucial to providing <br />information needed to predict thunderstorm rainfall in the 0-6 hour pre-storm <br />period, The flood detection networks provide invaluable quantitative <br />verification information on the rainfall and stream flow of the event. <br />Additionally local governments must assist in and/or take the lead in <br />developing flood warning plans which are basin or community specific and <br />result in pro-active community response, <br />