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Last modified
1/25/2010 7:07:45 PM
Creation date
10/5/2006 1:58:34 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Floodplain Documents
County
Statewide
Community
State of Colorado
Stream Name
Colorado River/Great Basin
Basin
Colorado Mainstem
Title
Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates, Colorado River and Great Basin Drainages
Date
1/1/1984
Prepared By
COE
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />41 <br /> <br />A family of depth-duration curves that would cover the range required in <br />the Southwest was then developed. First, a base depth-duration curve was es- <br />tablished using all recorder data for least-orographic stations in the August <br />1951 and September 1970 storms. These storms are the closest to the proto- <br />type PMP storm for most of the Southwest. Averages of 6/24-, 12/24-, 18/24-, <br />48/24-, and 72/24-hr ratios are shown by the large dots in figure 2.20. <br />The 72-hr dot is based solely on August 1951 data. A smooth line was drawn <br />through these dots. <br /> <br />Next, we expanded this base depth-duration curve to a family of curves <br />constrained by the limits: <br /> <br />a. Contant rainfall rate. A straight line from 0 to 100% at 24 hours to <br />300% at 72 hours. <br /> <br />b. All rain in the first instant, or 100% at all durations. <br /> <br />These two constraints are represented by the straight lines in figure 2.20. <br />There is great flexibility in how to draw additional curves between these two <br />lines. We selected 6/24-hr ratios at increments of 30, 40,..., 90% and drew <br />smooth curves between 0 and 24 hours that were consistent with the curvature <br />of the basic relation and somewhat symmetrical about a perpendicular bisector <br />to the curves. <br /> <br />The 6 additional curves were then extended to 48 and 72 hours as smooth <br />(not necessarily straight) lines. Further adjustments were made to the in- <br />crements between curves beyond 24 hours in order to maintain a gradual in- <br />crease (smooth gradient) in the increment between successive curves as the <br />72/24-hr ratios increased. The control for this gradient was the range in <br />individual recorder durational curves for the stations used in the August <br />1951 and September 1970 storms. Although the family of curves in figure <br />2.20 suggests a broad range of 72/24-hr ratios, a much smaller range is ap- <br />plicable to the Southwest as discussed under seasonal and regional variation& <br /> <br />The PMP study for the Northwestern States, HMR No. 43, used a similar gen- <br />eralized set of depth-duration relations for convergence PMP. While not de- <br />veloped in the same manner as in the present study, the results are similar. <br />Adopted smooth relations from the two studies are compared in figure 2.21. <br /> <br />2.4.3. Seasonal variation <br /> <br />It is to be expected that the 6/24-hr ratio should have a seasonal varia- <br />tion, i.e., because of greater convective activity ratios should be higher in <br />summer than in winter. <br /> <br />In figure 2.19, a check was made of two points (labelled A and B) that ap- <br />pear to be extremes relative to the seasonal distribution of points indicated <br />in this figure. Hourly precipitation records and synoptic weather analyses <br />indicate that point A is the result of 3 days of isolated afternoon thunder- <br />showers. Thus, it is not representative of a general-storm summer rainfall. <br />Point B results from one-day rainfall associated with a rapidly moving and <br />dissipating low-latitude cold front with light post-frontal showers on the <br />
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