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Last modified
1/25/2010 7:07:45 PM
Creation date
10/5/2006 1:58:34 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Floodplain Documents
County
Statewide
Community
State of Colorado
Stream Name
Colorado River/Great Basin
Basin
Colorado Mainstem
Title
Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates, Colorado River and Great Basin Drainages
Date
1/1/1984
Prepared By
COE
Floodplain - Doc Type
Educational/Technical/Reference Information
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<br />4 <br /> <br />In this derivation of PMP we assume that the record storms during. the past <br />80 or so years are repr~sentative of the climate of extreme precipitation. <br />PMP estimates therefore do not allow for changes in climate. <br /> <br />Experience gained from PMP studies in other regions gives additional guid- <br />ance to procedures and methods used. This then points to an operational de- <br />finition of PMP; i.e., estimates by hydrometeorologists of upper limits of <br />rainfall, supplied to engineers for use in hydrologic design. Quoting from <br />Operational Hydrology Report No.1 (World Meteorological Organization 1973), <br />"Whatever the philosophical objection to the concept, the operational defini- <br />tion leads to answers that have been examined thoroughly by competent meteor- <br />ologists and engineers and judged as meeting the requirements of a design <br />criterion. II <br /> <br />1.5 Methods of This Report <br /> <br />Estimation of general storm PMP of this report uses basically the same pro- <br />cedure used in two studies for adjoining regions; to the west (D. S. Weather <br />Bureau 196]) and to the north (D. S. Weather Bureau 1966a). First, essentially <br />nonorographic PMP, also termed convergence PMP (precipitation due to atmos- <br />pheric processes), is estimated. Then orographic PMP (precipitation from <br />moist air forced upward by mountain slopes and the triggering of rainfall near <br />first upslopes) is estimated. The two components of PMP are then added to- <br />gether. The convergence PMP is based on moisture-maximized rains of record, <br />reduced for mountain barriers and elevations. Consideration was given to <br />convergence PMP from the adjoining studies. Orographic PMP, for the most <br />part, was not based on the orographic precipitation computation model used in <br />adjoining regions (D. S. Weather Bureau 1961 and 1966a). Reasons for this <br />departure are spelled out in chapter 3. The model is not suited for the <br />meteorological conditions accompanying the main PMP storm prototype for much <br />of the Southwest, par.tly because the topography is too complicated. Alter- <br />nate methods for estimating orographic PMP are discussed in chapter 3. <br /> <br />The method used for local or thunderstorm PMP was to adjust the most in- <br />tense storm values for maximum moisture and develop a l-hr PMP map for 1 mi2 <br />(2.6 km2). The regional pattern of this map took into account maximum l-hr <br />rainfalls from recorder stations and broad-scale terrain features. Depth- <br />duration and depth-areal variations to extend the estimates to other dur- <br />ations and larger areas were based on record storms. <br /> <br />1.6 Organization of Report <br /> <br />General-storm convergence PMP estimates are developed in chapter 2 and gen- <br />eral storm orographic PMP in chapter 3. PMP for small areas from intense <br />thunderstorms is covered in chapter 4. Checks on the general level of PMP <br />are discussed in chapter 5; while chapter 6 gives procedures for and examples <br />of use of the developed criteria. <br /> <br />We at times refer to the study region as the Southwest or the Southwestern <br />States. Frequent reference will be made to studies for two adjoining <br />regions. These are the Columbia River drainage, Hydrometeorological Report <br />No. 43 (D. S. Weather Bureau 1966a) and the Pacific Ocean drainages of <br />
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