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<br />18 <br /> <br />october-April average precipitation (inches) <br />April 1 average snowpack water content (inches) <br />z = elevation (feet) applicable from 8,000' to 10,300' <br />2 <br />r = 0.32, <br />with a correlatio.n coefficient (r2) of 0.32 the accuracy of this <br /> <br />R = <br /> <br />relationship is far from perfect. It does, however, supply a framework <br /> <br /> <br />for making an objective and reasonable first approximation of winter <br /> <br />season precipitation at locations where the elevation and the average <br /> <br /> <br />April 1 snowpack water content are known. According to this expression, <br /> <br />as elevations approach 10,850 feet the ratio approaches 1. This means <br />that April 1 snowpack water content becomes equal to (or greater than <br />for elevations above 10,850 feet) the October-April precipitation. This <br />is not an acceptable conclusion since the April 1 snowpack as defined by <br />its time of observation does not include any of the precipitation that <br />fall s duri ng the month of Apri 1. For thi s reason, the regression <br />relationship was only used for elevations up to 10,300 feet. At higher <br />elevations, where melting during the month of April is often not <br /> <br />significant, May 1 average snowpack was used as a direct estimate of <br /> <br />October through April average precipitation. May 1 snowpack is <br /> <br /> <br />logically a slight underestimate of actual precipitation because some <br /> <br />melting and sublimation/evaporation occurs during the 7-month winter <br /> <br /> <br />season. However it is conceivably a better estimate of precipitation <br /> <br />than actual gage measurements. This is possible because of inefficient <br /> <br />gage catch which often occurs in windy, exposed locations. <br /> <br /> <br />Part of the reason for the 0.32 correlation coefficient is that <br /> <br />factors other than elevation affect the precipitation/snowpack ratio, <br /> <br /> <br />From the Colorado data it is apparent that factors such as latitude, <br />